经济学人下载:德国政治 新选项党的崛起

German politics
德国政治

The Alternative's astonishing ascent
新选项党的崛起

As the large centrist parties become more alike, the radical fringe gets stronger
大部分中立派议员趋同，激进派边缘增强

SINCE reunification in 1990, Saxony has been the former East Germany's biggest success story. As one of Germany's 16 federal states since then, it has been governed continuously by the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU). Its education system is considered Germany's best. Its economy is thriving, with world-class regional clusters in high-tech and carmaking. So there was never any question that Stanislaw Tillich, the state's understated and popular CDU premier, would stay in power after Saxony's election on August 31st. His party won more votes than the three leftist parties combined. With 39.4% of votes, Mr Tillich claimed victory.
自从1990年德国重新统一以后，萨克森州已经变成了前东德地区最成功的故事。自那时开始，作为联邦十六州之一的萨克森一直处在中右派的基督民主党统治之下。它的教育制度被认为是德国最好的，高科技与汽车制造业的地域集聚也使得它的经济情况日趋繁荣。毋庸置疑，低调行事且广受赞誉的基民党州长斯塔尼斯拉夫·提里希将在8月31日的大选后继续执政。基民党获得了超过三个左翼政党联盟的支持率，34.9%的得票率宣告了提里希的胜利。

And yet that result was the CDU's worst ever in Saxony, causing worries as the party approaches elections on September 14th in Thuringia and Brandenburg, also in former East Germany. The left-leaning Social Democrats (SPD) and ecology-minded Greens have reason to fret, too. They all did worse than they had hoped, largely because they lost votes to a populist party to the right of the CDU: the Alternative for Germany, led by Frauke Petry.
但这是基民党在萨克森选举历史上最糟糕的结果，导致了他们对同样归属前东德地区的图林根州与勃兰登堡在9月14日政党换届大选的担忧。而左翼党派德国社会民主党与生态主义绿党也有同样的烦恼。他们比预期中做的更糟，很大程度上因为他们票选输给了一个比基民党作风更为保守的民粹新政党—由弗劳克·佩特里领导的新选项党。

Founded last year, the Alternative began with only one policy: a call for the orderly unravelling of the euro as a currency zone. To this it has since added other conservative positions, such as opposition to public deficits and gay marriage. In some ways it resembles America's Tea Party. In Saxony, where it is strongest, it has increasingly emphasised tougher controls on immigration and border crime, often with xenophobic innuendo.
去年开始，新选项党遵循的唯一政策：呼吁有序解散欧元经济区。为此，党内开始增加其他保守立场，例如反对财政赤字与同性婚姻。在某种程度上它类似美国的茶党。在新选项党势力最强的萨克森州，它加强了对外来移民与边境犯罪的严格管控，并经常伴有排外情绪。

Though still chaotic in its party organisation and evolving in its views—for example, the party is squabbling over whether to criticise Vladimir Putin or coddle him—the Alternative has been rising stunningly fast. It came close to entering the federal parliament last September and succeeded in entering the European one in May. With 9.7% of the vote in Saxony, it now enters its first state parliament. It hopes to do so in Thuringia and Brandenburg, too.
即使政党内部观点开展的混乱不堪——比如为了要批评还是要优待普京而争吵——新选项党的依然在迅速成长。在去年九月它尝试进入联邦议院，并在五月份成功进入欧盟接替了一个席位。凭借在萨克森州9.7%的支持率，它首次进入州议院并希望在图林根州与勃兰登堡市也能取得同样的结果。

The new party's success is causing upheaval in the German political landscape, accelerating the implosion of its only liberal party, the Free Democrats (FDP). With just 3.8% of votes in Saxony, the FDP failed to clear the 5% threshold to enter parliament and was ejected, as it has been from seven other state parliaments since 2011 and the Bundestag last year. For the first time since 1946, the FDP does not participate in any state or federal government. This eliminates the liberals as the CDU's coalition partner, perhaps permanently.
新政党的成功引起了德国政坛格局的转变，也加速了德国唯一一个自由党派—自由民主党的分裂。自2011年起它已经相继被其他7个州议院与去年的联邦议会大选“除名”，而今年萨克森选举中，3.8%的得票率让自民党又一次在议院5%支持率的门槛前止步。这也是自1946年以来自民党首次未能进入任何州立或联邦政府，这种情况对于基民党的盟友—自民党的消除也许是永久性的。

A more positive side-effect of the Alternative's ascent is its cannibalisation of the NPD, a neo-Nazi party.About 13,000 of its voters migrated to the Alternative, causing the NPD to fall 809 votes short of re-entering the Saxon parliament. After that loss, it has seats in only one other state and could fade away, with or without a ban.
新选项党的成长带来的积极作用是与民粹政党—德国国家民主党的同类相残。约有1.3万名该党的支持者转向了新选项党，缺少809个支持票也直接导致了民主党无法重回议会。失败以后，无论同类相残是否被禁止，它在另一个州保留的仅有席位也可能消失。

The CDU so far refuses to contemplate a coalition with the Alternative. Led nationally by the chancellor, Angela Merkel, the CDU is pro-European and pro-euro, and so moderate as to be increasingly indistinguishable to many voters from the SPD, with which it governs in a “grand coalition” in the Bundestag. On September 1st Mrs Merkel, Mr Tillich and the CDU leaders in Thuringia and Brandenburg said again that discussions with the Alternative are taboo. Mr Tillich will try to form a coalition with the SPD or the Greens.
基民党至今拒绝考虑与新选项党联盟。在德国总理默克尔领导下的基民党是亲欧盟亲欧元的，如此温和的作风让人们越来越难以区分基民党与社民党，同时基民党还在西德联邦议会中掌管着大联盟。9月1日，默克尔、提里希和基民党其他领导人在图林根州与勃兰登堡市再一次表示，与新选项党讨论是被禁止的。提里希将会尝试与社民党或绿党建立联盟。

Ignoring the Alternative will not remove it as a problem for the CDU. In effect, the Alternative has in one year become on the far right what The Left is on the left. Descended from East Germany's Communist Party and unreconciled to Germany's capitalist system and its Western alliances, The Left remains strong in the eastern states. In Saxony it came in second with 18.9% of the vote. The comparatively moderate SPD has so far ruled out The Left as a partner in the Bundestag. But their competition splits the left vote and often leads to uNPRoductive ideological bidding wars.
基民党的联盟问题不会因为忽视新选项党而解决。事实上，新选项党已经在一年以内成为了极右派，如同左派党是左翼倾向。起源于东德共产党的新选项党，虽然没有与德国资本主义系统以及西部联盟达成一致，但在东部各州实力依然强大。它在萨克森州公投中以18.9%的支持率位居第二。相对温和的社民党已经排除了基民党在西联邦议院的左党伙伴。但是他们的竞争使得左派选票分裂，并且经常带来无意义的竞投战。

The Alternative will increasingly play the same role on the right vis-a-vis the CDU. On September 1st, Mrs Merkel suggested that, short of negotiating with the Alternative, the CDU must begin dealing with the concerns, rational or not, of its supporters. These range from fears about crime in the regions along the borders with the Czech Republic and Poland, to hysteria about “welfare tourism” by foreigners. The Alternative will be at its shrillest and strongest every time the euro crisis returns to the headlines. This will restrict Mrs Merkel's leeway to agree to new rescue packages, or even to ease her austerity drive.
新选项党将逐渐与基民党扮演同样重要的角色。九月一日，默克尔建议，由于缺少与新选项党磋商，基民党必须开始解决来自它的支持者们关心的问题，无论问题合理与否。支持者们关心的范围从对捷克和波兰接壤的边境地区犯罪的担忧，到对外国人“公益旅行”的歇斯底里。新选项党在欧元危机重回一线的每时每刻都表现出尖利强硬的一面。这将限制默克尔的回旋余地，被迫同意新计划，甚至缓和她的紧缩计划