经济学人下载:匈牙利 维克托陷入冲突

Hungary
匈牙利

Viktor goes to war
维克托陷入冲突

The Hungarian leader squabbles with some in his party and with America
匈牙利领导人与其政党成员和美国发生争吵

THE new year has not started well for Viktor Orban, Hungary's pugnacious prime minister. Support for his ruling right-wing Fidesz party is sliding. A recent poll by Median showed a drop from 38% to 26%, representing a loss of some 900,000 voters. Mr Orban's personal popularity plummeted by 16 percentage points. Other pollsters find similar results.
对好斗的匈牙利总理维克托·欧尔班来说，新年伊始一切并非那么顺利。其统治的右翼政党青年民主党的支持率下降。Median的最新民意调查显示，其支持率从38% 下降到26%，这意味着丧失了900,000张投票。欧尔班的个人知名度骤降了16个百分点。其他民意调查的结果相差无几。

The immediate cause for the discontent was a planned internet tax, which was hastily withdrawn after a demonstration in late October brought tens of thousands of protesters onto the streets of Budapest. Yet instead of placating angry Hungarians, the government's retreat—the first of any significance since its most recent landslide election victory in April 2014—seems to have galvanised them. Their growing anger has deep roots.
公众不满的直接来源是早已计划的网络收税法案。该法案于10月底宣布后，受到了强烈的抵制，成千上万的人们走上布达佩斯的街头对此表示抗议。然而，匈牙利政府的撤退非但没有抚慰愤怒的匈牙利人—自2014年4月压倒性选举胜利之后的第一件大事—相反更加激怒了他们。匈牙利人愈演愈烈的愤怒源泉由来已久。

Stories about the luxuries and fancy properties enjoyed by some government ministers and their friends, even as poverty is rising, are causing fissures within Fidesz. Zoltan Pokorni, a former party president and education minister, who is now a district mayor in Budapest, called for an end to the “flamboyant lifestyles” of government members and “leading politicians”. Mr Pokorni was slapped down by Janos Lazar, Mr Orban's chief of staff, but his remark was given wide publicity.
关于某些政府官员及其亲友掌握大量的奢侈品和财富以及穷人数量上升的消息都导致青年民主党内出现分歧。前青年党主席兼教育部长，亦即现任布达佩斯的某个区长Zoltan Pokorni呼吁政府官员和“领导政治人物”停止“奢靡的生活”。 Pokorni 遭到了来自欧尔班的办公室主任chief of staff的疯狂镇压，但是其言论也因此被大加渲染。

Concern is also growing within Fidesz that a row with the Americans may develop into a full-blown diplomatic crisis. Six Hungarian officials have been banned from entering the United States on suspicions of corruption, a highly unusual sanction against a NATO ally. The United States is refusing to name them, citing privacy. However, Ildiko Vida, the head of the tax authority, has admitted to being on the list, and she strongly denies any wrongdoing. Encouraged by Mr Orban, she is suing Andre Goodfriend, the American chargé d'affaires in Budapest, for defamation. The lawsuit is unlikely to go anywhere, since Mr Goodfriend has diplomatic immunity.
此外，越来越吸引大家注意的是，青年党与美国人愈演愈烈的争吵可能恶化为一场外交危机。六位匈牙利官员因怀疑受贿禁止进入美国，这是对北约盟国成员非常的惩罚手段。出于隐私考虑，美方拒绝透露姓名。然而，税务机构的负责人 Ildiko Vida承认自己也在其中，并强烈否认有过不良举动。在欧尔班的指示下，她正在起诉美国驻布达佩斯官员Andre Goodfriend诽谤他人。这场诉讼不太可能有结果，因为Goodfriend享有外交赦免权。

The holiday offered a chance for tempers to cool and for revisions to Hungary's foreign policy. A turn towards Moscow has backfired after the Ukraine crisis and the collapse of the rouble. Hungarian officials have told Western ambassadors that a much-vaunted “eastern opening” has failed to bring as much foreign trade and investment as they hoped. President Vladimir Putin's cancellation of the South Stream pipeline project, backed by Hungary, was a blow to its energy strategy.
此次假期可让那些愤怒的人们冷静下来，修改匈牙利外交政策。随着乌克兰危机恶化，卢布贬值，匈牙利倒向莫斯科反而适得其反。匈牙利官员告诉西方外交官之前大加炫耀的“向东方敞开大门”并未为其带来所希望的外贸和资金。弗拉基米尔·普京总统取消了匈牙利支持的南部天然气管道计划，沉重地打击了匈牙利的能源政策。

Yet instead of patching up relations with the Americans, Mr Orban and his ministers have launched an attack. He dismissed the claims of corruption as a “cover story” for American attempts to increase influence in the region. The United States was interfering in the domestic political affairs of central European countries, he added. The driving factors were the conflict in Ukraine and the negotiations between the European Union and the Americans over free trade. “They want to draw us into a conflict, which can only have a bad outcome for us.” America was just conveying concerns about democracy and the rule of law to the Hungarian government, retorted a State Department spokesman.
欧尔班和属下非但没有极力修复和美国的关系，反而策划了一场袭击。他认为贿赂事件不过是美国试图提高在该地区影响力的一个借口。他表示，美国日前正在干涉中欧国家的国内政策。诱因就是乌克兰语冲突和欧盟与美国的自贸协议。“他们想把我们拖进冲突，这对我们有害无益。”美方发言人表示，美国只想对匈牙利政府的民主法治表示关心。

Aggressive claims about America's behaviour have now been made by Mr Lazar, by Antal Rogan, Fidesz's parliamentary leader and by Peter Szijjarto, the foreign minister, all of whom have given interviews to pro-government media. Mr Szijjarto told Magyar Nemzet that “external and internal” powers wanted to “destabilise” Hungary. The rift with America dates back to the passing of a controversial media law, says Zoltan Kovacs, a government spokesman. “There is a visible and tangible dislike of the US administration towards us since 2011.” Such sentiments may play well with Fidesz's base, but they are unlikely to expand it.
当前，匈牙利青年党领袖人物Antal Rogan，外交部长彼得·希贾托和拉扎尔对美国的言行做出了强烈谴责。他们都接受了亲政府媒体的采访。希贾托向匈牙利民族报表示，“不朽的内部”力量将“动摇”匈牙利。匈牙利政府发言人Zoltan Kovacs表示，与美国的间隙可追溯至颇具争议的媒体法案。 “自2011年以来，美国政府对我们的不喜显而易见。”这种情绪在青年党基层非常常见，但是他们不愿意将其扩大。