经济学人下载:印尼反贫困计划 承诺满满

Indonesia's anti-poverty plans
印尼反贫困计划

Full of promise
承诺满满

Cutting fuel subsidies makes space for an ambitious income top-up scheme
削减燃油补贴为雄心勃勃的收入提升计划铺路搭桥

BARACK OBAMA signed his health-care programme into law 427 days after taking office. Joko Widodo, Indonesia's president, took just two weeks to begin honouring his health-care and education promises. On November 3rd his government began issuing cards that will give poor Indonesians access to three programmes—two expanding publicly funded health care and education, and one giving cash handouts of 200,000 rupiah (15.75) per month. The income top-up scheme is planned eventually to cover 86.4m people in 15.5m households—a third of Indonesia's population. That would make it the largest such programme in the world.
贝拉克·奥巴马在就任总统427天后才签署了他的医保法案。印尼总统佐科·维多多只准备了两周，即开始兑现他在医疗和教育方面的承诺。11月3日，印尼政府面向本国贫困人口， 开始推行三个项目——其中两个增加了对于医疗和教育的政府投入，另一个则向适格人群发放每月20万卢比（15.75美元）的现金救济。这项收入提升计划预计将覆盖一千五百五十万个家庭中的八千六百四十万人——占印尼总人数的三分之一。这一项目的规模在全球同类中雄踞绝顶。

Poor Indonesians were already eligible for various social programmes, including some scholarships and health care. But Jokowi, as he is known, has something his predecessors lacked: money. Like many countries, Indonesia has long wasted vast sums on subsidising fuel (see chart). But on January 1st Jokowi ended petrol subsidies, which will, according to the finance minister, save the government 200 trillion rupiah per year.
印尼贫困人口对此类项目（包括奖学金和医疗服务）的需求早已存在。但正如世人所知，佐科维（民众对佐科·维多多的爱称）手握大笔资金，而这是他的前任所缺乏的。和许多国家一样，印尼长期以来花费重金以补贴油价。但佐科维自1月1日始，终止了燃油补贴。据印尼财政部长所言，这将为政府每年节约二千亿卢比。

The income top-up is being described as cushioning the impact on consumers. But petrol subsidies benefited rich Indonesians most, since few poor ones own cars. The reality is that Jokowi seized the moment: the recent fall in the price of oil means Indonesia's newly unsubsidised petrol costs less than subsidised petrol did last month.
据说收入提升计划将尽量减少对消费者的影响。但无可否认的是，较富裕的人群从燃油补贴中受益最多，因为穷人很少买得起车。并且佐科维抓住了时机：最近油价下跌意味着，即使取消补贴，油价也低于上个月。

The finance minister's estimate of how much cutting fuel subsidies will save may be optimistic. And not all of the money freed up will go on social spending: more infrastructure investment is also expected. Nor will all those eligible be enrolled straight away. The plan is for 4.5m cards to be issued this year.
财政部长的预测可能过于乐观。另外，并非所有省下来的钱都将用于社会支出：还有一部分用于基础设施建设。也不是所有的贫困人口将同时获益。按计划，今年只发放四百五十万张保障卡。

And details of how the programmes will work are as yet unclear. The plan is for the income top-ups to be collected using a mobile-phone SIM card at a bank branch or post office. Currently, recipients turn up at government offices and walk out with cash, which makes them vulnerable to crime and the system open to fraud and corruption.
项目运作细节仍有待商榷。政府原本计划：受助人群在银行网点或邮局使用移动电话SIM卡与项目对接。但现在的情形是：受助人群前往政府机构领取现金。这样罪犯难免盯上这群人，并且此等机制也难免催生欺诈和腐败。

But banks and post offices are thin on the ground in remote regions. And supplying social services in an archipelagic country as vast and sprawling as Indonesia is also difficult. Promises of free health care mean little when clinics lack staff, equipment and medicine.
困难在于，银行和邮局在边远地区寥寥无几。印尼是一个广阔的岛国，这样的地理条件也增加了困难。更糟的是，印尼的诊所总的来说缺乏人手，设备和药品；在这样的条件下，就算削减民众的医疗支出，意义也非常有限。

But as mayor of Solo, a city of 500,000 in Central Java, and then governor of the capital, Jakarta, Jokowi gained a reputation for competence and keeping his promises. Improving social services was one of his main campaign pledges.
但是佐科维——这个曾经的索罗市（爪哇中部一座拥有50万人口的城市）市长，后来的首者雅加达执政官，现在的总统—早已声名卓著：受人千金，不如得佐科一诺。提升社会服务正是他在竞选中提出的主要目标。

In the long run, making Indonesians healthier and better educated will help them become more productive and richer. But the country's poverty line is 300,000 rupiah per person per month. Cash transfers of two-thirds that amount will lift millions above it.
长期来看，加强医疗和教育投入将提高印尼的生产率，也将使民众受惠。该国的贫困线是每人每月30万卢比。如此算来，每人每月补贴20万卢比，将使数百万人脱贫。