经济学人下载:英国经济 虚伪的乔治

Britain's economy
英国经济

Spurious George
虚伪的乔治

The chancellor is poised to put forward a long-term plan for Britain—about the wrong thing
英国财政大臣信誓旦旦的准备在错误的事上为英国提出一个长期计划。

THE British government's great boast is its resolve. Fainter hearts might have trembled before the political law that you cannot cut your way to re-election. But the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition, forged in the dark days following the financial crisis, formed a plan for the economy and stood its ground. Its reward has been to see unemployment tumble and Britain grow faster than any other big rich country in 2014.
英国政府的自我吹捧是其解决问题的手段。不能阻止连任，就意味着你脆弱的心脏将在政治法律面前颤抖。但保守党和自由民主党组成的联合政府,在金融危机后的黑暗的日子里,形成了计划经济,稳如磐石。奥斯本指出，2014年英国的失业率大幅下降，且经济增长速度远高于其他发达国家。

It is a rousing refrain. And when George Osborne, the chancellor of the exchequer, gives the budget speech on March 18th, less than two months before a general election that will revolve around the economy, he is sure to utter the words “long-term economic plan” and to affirm his iron commitment to a fiscal surplus for Britain by 2018-19 (see Bagehot).
最能鼓舞人心的消息则是在3月18日，英国财务大臣乔治·奥斯本做了预算演讲，使得还有不到两个月就要开始的大选将会始终围绕经济展开。在演讲中他明确提出“长期计划经济”，并许下铁一般的承诺，声称于2018到2019年度英国将会出现盈余。

The shabby truth, however, is that the success of Mr Osborne stems from the goals he has abandoned, rather than the guns he has stuck to. And next week, unless his budget plans are more apt, Britain risks paying a heavy price.
然而，事实的真相则是，奥斯本的成功源于被其遗弃的目标，而不是他一直以来所坚持的武器。除非他的计划非常贴切，否则英国极有可能在下周为此付出沉重的代价。

The government has done sensible things with Mr Osborne as chancellor—not least cutting corporation tax, raising the income-tax threshold and pinching Mark Carney from Canada for the Bank of England. But it has been at its best when it has been at its least consistent, in three main areas.
政府与财政大臣奥斯本做出了一个明智的决定。尤其是削减公司所得税,提高所得税阈值和任命加拿大央行行长马克·卡尼为英国央行行长这几个方面上。然而在这最主要的三个方面上，虽然他们已经尽力，但仍未能使其统一战线。

The first is fiscal policy. Five years ago the Conservatives pledged to eliminate almost all of Britain's structural deficit—then estimated at 8.7% of GDP—by the end of their term. They now lead a coalition government that is only half way there. Borrowing this year will probably be about 5% of GDP or ￡90 billion ($135 billion), ￡55 billion more than first planned. After two years of weak growth, because of austerity and a European slump, the chancellor pushed back his deadline for closing the deficit. So much for what was then known as “Plan A”.
第一条财政政策就指出，五年前，保守党在任期结束前，曾承诺将要剔除近乎所有的英国结构性赤字，并预估其GDP为8.7%。而现在，联合政府只做到了一半。今年的借款可能约占GDP的5%或约900亿欧元（约1350亿美元），远超出第一计划时的550亿欧元。因为经济紧缩和欧洲经济衰退,英国经过了两年的经济增长疲软，为此，财政大臣推迟了缩小财政赤字的最后期限。这些计划在当时被称为“计划A”。

Red box, black box
红盒，黑盒

That change was welcome and necessary. Sticking to the plan would have meant tax rises or bigger cuts to public spending, or a combination of the two. It would probably have pitched the economy back into recession, and might have wrecked public services. As it is, the state has coped with deep but steady cuts. Crime is down and the sky has not fallen on local government or the National Health Service.
改变是受欢迎同时也是必要的。继续坚持这个计划意味着税收的提高或者公共基础设施花费的大幅减少，甚至是两者同时进行。它可能会使得经济回到之前的萧条，并且不能更好的服务大众。即便如此，在面对大幅削减的情况下国家经济仍然能保持稳定。犯罪率下降，地方政府和国家医疗保健服务上也没有出现差错。

A second change of course was equally welcome. After coming to power in 2010, the coalition first stuck to the previous Labour government's plans to slash capital budgets. Public investment—always the easiest bill to cut quickly—fell by 35% in two years. That was foolish. Spending on infrastructure is essential to long-term growth and is chronically low in Britain. Mr Osborne tempered the cuts in infrastructure spending starting in 2011. Again, his change of heart was good.
第二个改变同样也受到欢迎。联合政府在2010年上台后,首先坚持前工党政府的计划，削减资本预算。其中削减公共基础设施的投资是最容易的法案（两年内就降低了35%）。但这真是个愚蠢的决定。毕竟基础设施开支对英国的长期增长和持续低迷是至关重要的。奥斯本的这项削减计划是从2011年开始的，当再次谈到这个话题时，只希望他要是能改变主意会更好

The biggest and best departure from the blueprint is also the most embarrassing. Before he became prime minister, David Cameron pledged to reduce annual net migration to the “tens of thousands”. The coalition government has never abandoned that goal. Yet at the last count net migration stood at a UKIP-maddening 298,000 and rising. Because they are young, healthy, hardworking and enterprising, immigrants have boosted growth and swelled the public purse. A big fall in net migration would have weighed on the economy: GDP has risen by 7.8% over this parliament; GDP per person is up by only 4.2%.
在计划实施的最大最好时撤离也是极为尴尬的。在大卫·卡梅伦成为首相之前, 他承诺每年减少“成千上万”的净移民。联合政府从来没有放弃这一目标，然而最后净移民达到足以让英国独立党发狂（UKIP-maddening）的 298000且还在上升。因为他们年轻,健康,勤奋进取,新移民促进增长且增加公众的收入。但是净移民会使得国家经济大幅下挫：议会上就宣布了英国全年GDP增长达7.8%，而人均GDP增长却只有4.2%。

You might think that the government's vacillations are ancient history or that doing the right thing is more important than saying it. But plans focus the mind. And in the upcoming budget Mr Osborne risks focusing minds on the wrong issue.
你可能会认为政府的犹豫不决已是过去式，相比下做对的事情比把事情做对更重要。但计划很侧重于关键点。相比即将到来的预算风险，奥斯本的焦点则在错误的问题上。

Britain's biggest problem today is not the deficit but stagnant productivity growth that leaves output per hour 2% below its peak in 2008.The country's economic future depends far more on boosting how much Britons produce at work than how quickly the deficit is cut. Mr Osborne surely knows that and may secretly plan to shift priorities later. But he is making good policy less likely. U-turns are embarrassing, so plans tend to last for too long. By preparing for deficit-cutting and neglecting productivity, government departments are dissipating their efforts. Mr Osborne did well to change course before. The right thing today is to make a plan for productivity—and stick to it.
如今，英国最大的问题不是赤字，而是生产力的停滞不前使得输出量相较于2008年的峰值正以每小时2%的速率下降。该国的经济前景更取决于英国人在工作中产生量能比赤字削减的速度快多少。奥斯本当然知道这一问题，且可能正在秘密计划再稍后调整计划顺序。在准备削减赤字和忽视生产力这一问题上,政府部门正在努力解决。奥斯本先生也改变了观点。现如今最需要做的事是提出关于提高生产力的计划并坚持下去。