经济学人下载:土耳其大选 反对票会占多大比例

Turkey's election
土耳其大选

How big will the protest vote be?
反对票会占多大比例？

Why the ruling AK party may not do as well on June 7th as in the past
土耳其执政党正义与发展党在6月7日大选的表现为何会不如以往

THE Justice and Development (AK) party has won three general elections in a row, most recently in 2011. Yet although it seems certain to win over 40% of the vote and remain the largest party after the election on June 7th, it is losing ground. Many things that helped AK are being reversed. The economy, its strongest suit, has run out of steam. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, AK's charismatic former prime minister, who became Turkey's first directly elected president in August, has become increasingly despotic and out of touch. And some opposition parties now look more appealing.
土耳其正义与发展党已连续赢得三次大选，最近的一次是在2011年。尽管正发党对于6月7日的普选似乎胜券在握，认为自己能够赢得超过40%的选票并且其最大执政党的位置依然屹立不倒，然而，正发党的执政地位正日益失势。益于正发党之事也渐渐与其对立起来。其强项经济方面也已经疲软。正发党前首相埃尔多安魅力超凡，曾是首位于八月被直接推选而出的土耳其总统，如今的他却越来越专制与脱节。当下，不少反对党看起来更具有吸引力。

The main centre-left Republican People's Party (CHP) has changed tack. Its leader, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, has ditched his shrilly anti-Erdogan rhetoric of old and is hitting AK hard on the economy. His pledges to double the minimum wage and to improve the lot of some 11m pensioners may sound populist, yet they have resonance. Two-thirds of CHP candidates were elected in primaries. And Mr Kilicdaroglu has managed to bring in female candidates such as Selina Dogan, an ethnic Armenian lawyer, and Selin Sayek Boke, a respected Arab Christian economist. Ultra-secular dinosaurs have gone.
最大的左翼共和人民党改变了策略。其领导人齐力·克达洛格鲁也摒弃了他过去关于反埃尔多安的尖锐说辞，在经济方面对正发党发起重击。他承诺会将最低工资翻上一番，并提高约一千一百万养老金领取人群的数量，听起来民粹主义，然而反响不错。左翼共和人民党中三分之二的候选人都是经过初选选拔而来。克达洛格鲁想法设法引入了一些女性候选人，例如少数民族亚美尼亚律师赛琳娜·多根，受人景仰的阿拉伯经济学家与基督教徒赛琳·萨耶克·博克。超世俗的守旧时代已远去。

Alas, the newly colourful CHP is still not expected to add much to the 26% it got in 2011. But that is partly because some supporters are defecting to another opposition party, the pro-Kurdish People's Democracy Party (HDP). The HDP is a challenge to Mr Erdogan because his dream of an executive presidency depends on its share of the vote. Previously the Kurds fielded independent candidates to get around the minimum 10% threshold for seats in the parliament. But the HDP is now running nationally. Should it get over 10% of the vote, it will pick up 50-60 seats, leaving AK well short of the minimum 330 deputies required to propose constitutional changes, including an executive presidency.
可惜的是，新晋共和人民党仍没有太大希望超过2011年，得到多于26%选票。一部分原因是某些追随者叛变投向诸如亲库尔德人民民主党的其他反对党。亲库尔德人民民主党对于埃尔多安而言是项挑战，因为他的执行主席之梦需要依靠选票来实现。此前，库尔德人派出的独立候选人在议会中所占席位最低大约10%。然而，如今共和人民党的势力正在土耳其全国范围内推行蔓延。如果共和人民党能够赢得超过10%的选票，它将在议会获得50-60的席位，那么正发党则无法凑齐包括执行主席在内的至少330位议会代表的提议来完成宪法修改。

Some pollsters think AK might even fall short of the 276 seats it needs for a simple majority. It would then have to form a coalition with the third main opposition party, the far-right Nationalist Action Party (MHP), since both the CHP and the HDP say they will not go into government with AK. If, however, the HDP does not clear the 10% hurdle, AK will inherit all its seats, clearing the way not just for a renewed single-party government but perhaps for Mr Erdogan's executive presidency.
一些民意调查机构认为正发党达不到一般获胜票选所需的276个席位。接下来它必须要与第三方的反对党----极右翼的民族行动党进行强强联手的合作，因为共和人民党与亲库尔德人民民主党扬言不会与正发党一同加入政府。不过，如果亲库尔德人民民主党没有清除掉那10%的障碍，正发党将获得其在议会的所有席位，这不仅为能复兴一党执政的政府扫清道路，可能也能为埃尔多安的执行主席之位扫除障碍。

The HDP owes its rising fortunes in part to its co-chair, Selahattin Demirtas. With his youthful looks and biting wit, the former human-rights lawyer from Diyarbakir makes Mr Erdogan seem a has-been. All over Turkey, bejewelled dowagers, hipsters and factory workers say they may vote HDP either because they “like Demirtas” or because “it's the only way to stop Erdogan.” This is a sea change. The HDP was long seen as the political arm of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), the rebels fighting for Kurdish self-rule since 1984. Few doubt that the PKK and its imprisoned leader, Abdullah Ocalan, still hold much sway. But a ceasefire that has held since March 2013 has legitimised the HDP. Winning more seats in parliament would propel the Kurds further into the mainstream and loosen the rebels' grip. Being shut out would have the opposite effect.
亲库尔德人民民主党的好运一部分归功于其联合主席塞拉·德米塔斯，这位来自德亚巴克尔的前任人权律师，一表人才、犀利机智，反倒是埃尔多安显得过气起来。纵观整个土耳其，无论是珠光宝气的贵妇、时尚流行的潮人，还是辛勤劳作的工人都表示自己或许会将选票投给亲库尔德人民民主党，理由要么是“敬仰德米塔斯”，要么是“这是唯一能够阻止埃尔多安的方法”。这是一场席卷的变革。亲库尔德人民民主党长期以来一直被视作库尔德工人党在政治上的左膀右臂，自1984年起便致力于库尔德人自制的斗争中。无人质疑库尔德工人党，其已被监禁的领导人阿布拉杜·奥贾兰仍然拥有举足轻重的地位。2013年3月的停战协定使得亲库尔德人民民主党合法化。在议会中赢得更多的席位将推进库尔德人成为政治主流，解放反叛。如被拒之门外，效果会大大相反。

Although it was Mr Erdogan who initiated peace with the Kurds, he has hit the campaign trail, Koran in hand, ranting about Mr Demirtas's supposed “terrorist connections” and lack of faith. The HDP has to lure pro-AK Kurds into switching sides if it is to squeak past the threshold. “Kurds in the big western cities like Istanbul and Izmir hold the key,” concludes Behlul Ozkan, a political scientist. The HDP's victory is “by no means guaranteed”
尽管埃尔多安倡导与库尔德人和平共处，他却手持《可兰经》，在竞选游说中大放其词称德米塔斯可能“与恐怖分子有来往”，无信仰不忠诚。若亲库尔德人民民主党想要侥幸逃过所谓的门槛，他们必须要引诱正发党的库尔德人转变政治倾向。“库尔德人在诸如伊斯坦布尔与伊兹密尔的西方大城市很关键，”政治科学家Behlul Ozkan如是说。亲库尔德人民民主党是否能够取胜谁也无法保证。