经济学人下载:阿根廷债务违约 不走运第八次了

Argentina defaults
阿根廷债务违约

Eighth time unlucky
不走运，第八次了

Cristina Fernandez argues that her country's latest default is different. She is missing the point
克里斯蒂娜·费尔南德斯称，她国家最近的债务违约跟以前可不一样。她没说到点子上

ARGENTINA'S first bond, issued in 1824, was supposed to have a lifespan of 46 years. Less than four years later, the government defaulted. Resolving the ensuing stand-off with creditors took 29 years. Since then seven more defaults have followed, the most recent this week, when Argentina failed to make a payment on bonds issued as partial compensation to victims of the previous default, in 2001.
1824年，阿根廷第一次发行债券，原本预期期限为46年。结果不到四年，阿根廷政府就出现了债务违约。处理跟随之而来与债权人的紧张关系花了29年。从那以后，又发生了七次债务违约。最近一次发生在本周，阿根廷无法偿付重组债券，导致了此次债务违约。这些债券原本是作为对前一次2001年债务违约中受损投资人的部分补偿。

Most investors think they can see a pattern in all this, butArgentina's president, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, insists the latest default is not like the others. Her government, she points out, had transferred the full 539m it owed to the banks that administer the bonds. It isAmerica's courts (the bonds were issued under American law) that blocked the payment, at the behest of the tiny minority of owners of bonds from 2001 who did not accept the restructuringArgentinaoffered them in 2005 and again in 2010. These “hold-outs”, balking at the 65% haircut the restructuring entailed, not only persuaded a judge that they should be paid in full but also got him to freeze payments on the restructured bonds untilArgentinacoughs up.
许多投资人认为，他们能从中看出规律了。但是，阿根廷总统，克里斯蒂娜·费尔南德斯·德基什内尔坚称，最近一次债务违约跟以往的完全不同。她说，她的政府，已经向管理债券的银行全额汇去了所欠的5.39亿美元，阻挠偿付的，是美国法院（这些债券是依照美国法律发行的）。一小撮2001年债券的持有者，不愿意接受阿根廷在2005年和2010年提出的债务重组方案，是他们要求美国法院作出了这样的裁决。这些“钉子户”，不愿意接受重组方案65%的债务削减，他们不仅说服了法官裁决阿根廷要全额偿还欠他们的历史债务，而且还让法官冻结了阿根廷对其它重组债务的偿付，直到阿根廷妥协为止。

Argentinaclaims that paying the hold-outs was impossible. It is not just that they are “vultures” as Argentine officials often put it, who bought the bonds for cents on the dollar after the previous default and are now holding those who accepted the restructuring (accounting for 93% of the debt) to ransom. The main problem is that a clause in the restructured bonds prohibitsArgentinafrom offering the hold-outs better terms without paying everyone else the same. Since it cannot afford to do that, it says it had no choice but to default.
阿根廷称，不可能付钱给那些“钉子户”。这不光是因为这些人都是“秃鹫”，阿根廷官员常这么叫他们，这些人在上一次发生债务违约后，以极大的折扣购入了债券；还因为他们现在把那些已经接受重组方案的债权人（占债务的95%）绑为人质。问题的关键，就在于重组债券中的一项条款，让阿根廷不能在其他债权人未得到同等待遇的前提下，给“钉子户”开出更好的条件。由于无法承受对所有债权人全额偿付债务，阿根廷说自己别无选择，只能违约。

Yet it is not certain that the clause requiring equal treatment of all bondholders would have applied, given that Argentinawould not have been paying the hold-outs voluntarily, but on the courts' orders. Moreover, some owners of the restructured bonds had agreed to waive their rights; had Argentinamade a concerted effort to persuade the remainder to do the same, it might have succeeded. Lawyers and bankers have suggested various ways around the clause in question, which expires at the end of the year. But Argentina's government was slow to consider these options or negotiate with the hold-outs, hiding instead behind indignant nationalism.
然而，不能确定此要求对所有债权持有人同等待遇的条款适用，因为阿根廷不是自愿偿付那些“钉子户”，而是在法庭命令下不得不这么做。而且，一些重组债券持有人已经同意放弃追索权益；如果阿根廷努力劝服其它人也放弃追索权益，可能会成功。许多律师和银行家提出了许多方式绕过争议条款，而且该条款到今年年底就失效了。但是，阿根廷政府没能认真考虑这些选择，也没努力跟“钉子户”谈判，而是躲在满腔义愤的民族主义身后。

Don't try to flee, Argentina
阿根廷别想着逃避

Ms Fernandez is right that the consequences ofAmerica's court rulings have been perverse, unleashing a big financial dispute in an attempt to solve a relatively small one. But hers is not the first government to be hit with an awkward verdict. Instead of railing against it, she should have tried to minimise the harm it did. Defaulting has helped no one: none of the bondholders will now be paid,Argentinalooks like a pariah again, and its economy will remain starved of loans and investment.
费尔南德斯女士称，美国法院判决造成的后果是不公正的，是为了解决小的金融问题，而触发大的金融争端。她说的没错。但是，这已不是第一次有政府遭遇古怪判决了。与其跟判决对着干，她本该试着将损害最小化。债务违约帮不了任何人：现在所有债权人都不能得到偿付，阿根廷声誉再一次严重受损，其经济依旧得不到贷款和投资。

Happily, much of the damage can still be undone. It is not too late to strike a deal with the hold-outs or back an ostensibly private effort to buy out their claims. A quick fix would make it easier forArgentinato borrow again internationally. That, in turn, would speed development of big oil and gas deposits, the income from which could help ease its money troubles.
好消息是，多数损害还没有造成。现在跟“钉子户”达成协议，或是私下让他们表面上放弃全额清偿追索，还为时未晚。一次权宜之计能让阿根廷再次在国际市场上借钱更容易。而这，能加快对丰富石油和天然气资源的开发，由之而来的收入，能缓解阿根廷的资金困境。

More important, it would help to change perceptions ofArgentinaas a financial rogue state. Over the past year or so Ms Fernandez seems to have been trying to rehabilitateArgentina's image and resuscitate its faltering economy. She settled financial disputes with government creditors and with Repsol, a Spanish oil firm whose Argentine assets she had expropriated in 2012. This week's events have overshadowed all that. For its own sake, and everyone else's,Argentinashould hold its nose and do a deal with the hold-outs.
更重要的是，这能改变阿根廷作为金融流氓国家的形象。过去一年左右，费尔南德斯女士似乎在努力重塑阿根廷形象，努力让摇摇摆摆的经济复苏。她解决了跟政府债权人的金融争端，以及跟西班牙石油公司Repsol的争端，费尔南德斯2012年曾没收该公司在阿根廷的资产。本周的事件让所有这些都蒙上了阴影。为了自己，也为了别人，阿根廷应该捏住鼻子，忍住厌恶，跟“钉子户”达成协议。