经济学人下载:政策转向 法国能否通过欧盟财政契约?

French politics
法国政治

A policy “reorientation”
政策“转向”

France’s parliament votes on the European fiscal pact
法国议会将就欧盟财政契约进行表决

Francois Holland campaigned on a promise to “renegotiate” the European fiscal pact signed by his predecessor, Nicolas Sarkozy, and Germany’s chancellor, Angela Merkel. Now the French president is trying to persuade his Socialist deputies to vote in favour of the very same pact, in treaty form. In a parliamentary debate on October 2nd his prime minister, Jean-Marc Ayrault, argued that a rejection of the treaty, which enshrines budgetary discipline and goes to a vote on October 9th, would provoke “a political crisis and the collapse of monetary union”. But the irony of this turnaround has not been lost.
弗朗索瓦·奥朗德在竞选时曾承诺，将“重新磋商”前任总统尼古拉·萨科奇与德国总理安吉拉·默克尔共同签署的欧洲财政契约。而现在，这位法国总统正尝试说服其社会党内议员投票支持该契约。在10月2日的一场议会辩论中，法国总理让-马克·艾罗称，该条约是对财政纪律的维护，投票将在10月9日进行，而否决该条约将会挑起“一场政治危机，导致货币联盟崩溃”。这一立场转变的讽刺之处尚不尽于此。

Mr Hollande faces a rebellion on the left of his party, with about 20 deputies threatening to vote against, and from the Greens, who have formally decided to oppose the treaty. This is particularly odd for the two Green ministers, Cecile Duflot and Pascal Canfin, who have ruled out resigning from government despite their party’s opposition. On September 30th tens of thousands of demonstrators took to the streets in protest at the treaty and at austerity, urging Mr Hollande to “listen to the people not the financiers”. A group of Eurosceptics on the right have declared that, if the treaty is approved, the loss of sovereignty will turn French deputies into mere “museum guards”.
奥朗德不仅失去了其社会党内左翼人士的支持——约20位议员威胁要投反对票，还面临着绿党的反对——后者已正式决定反对该条约。这对赛希尔·杜弗洛及巴斯卡尔·康凡这两位来自绿党的部长来说尤为罕见，此二人曾抵住党内反对，拒绝从政府辞职。9月30日，成千上万的示威者走上街头抵制该条约，反对财政紧缩政策，催促奥朗德“听听民众而不是金融家的声音”。一些右翼欧洲怀疑论者还宣称，如果这一条约得以通过，主权的丧失将会把法国议员变成纯粹的“博物馆保安”。

In all likelihood, the treaty will nonetheless be approved. Mr Hollande can rely on the votes of most deputies on the right, who are relishing the sight of the Socialist Party, which kicked up such a fuss against the original pact, now championing the text. Bernard Cazeneuve, the Europe minister, who has been pleading the cause in endless meetings with deputies, still holds out hope that dissident Socialists might be won round. He argues that the treaty needs to be seen in the context of a policy “reorientation” in the euro zone since Mr Hollande took over. Leaders have agreed to a parallel growth pact, albeit modest, and to work on other measures, such as common banking supervision.
然而，该条约十有八九都会得以通过。奥朗德可以依赖大多数右翼议员的支持，他们欣赏社会党的视野，曾经轰轰烈烈地反对契约草案，现在却为其斩棘开路。欧洲事务部部长贝尔纳尔·卡兹纳夫曾在无数次议会会议中声援该条约，仍然希望能够赢得社会党内反对派的支持。他坚称，在奥朗德执政时代，必须在对欧元区实行政策“转向”的背景下看待该条约。领导层已经通过一个类似的经济发展条约——尽管是以微弱优势通过，并且同意就共同银行监管等其他措施进行协商。

Achieving parliamentary approval, however, will not bury Mr Hollande’s Europe problem. A one-time protege of Jacques Delors, father of European integration, Mr Hollande is, at heart, a Euro-enthusiast. Yet his party, like his country, remains divided. Mr Hollande was particularly scarred by a rebellion within his own ranks, at a time when he was party leader, against the draft European constitution in 2005, which the French as a whole rejected in a referendum. He dithered for months before sanctioning Laurent Fabius, who led the dissidents and is now foreign minister. The underlying party split still lingers.
但是，即便赢得了议会的支持，也无法掩盖奥朗德面临的欧洲问题。奥朗德曾是欧洲统一之父雅克·德洛尔的门徒，他本质上是欧盟的忠实拥趸。但是他的党派和他的国家一样，仍处于意见分裂状态。2005年，法国全民公投反对欧盟宪法草案，时任社会党领导人的奥朗德就受到了党内同僚的重创。他迟疑了好几个月才制裁了领导反对者的洛朗·法比尤斯，后者现任法国外交部长。社会党内潜在的分歧仍未消弭。

The debate about “political union” in the euro zone is almost entirely absent in France. Writing in Le Monde, a daily, Francoise Fressoz, an editorialist, called this a “strategy of silence”, designed not to stir up divisions. In his speech, Mr. Ayrault declared that France was ready to make proposals, but on condition that the objective was “integration solidaire”, or integration with solidarity. But what exactly he and Mr Hollande mean by this, besides the mutualisation of debt, is unclear.
法国国内几乎从未讨论过关于在欧元区建立“政治联盟”的问题。法国《世界报》主笔Francoise Fressoz称这一现象为“静默政策”，可以避免挑起纷争。让-马克·艾罗在发言中宣称，法国会积极提出建议，但条件是以“团结的统一”为目的。然而，对于债务互助化问题等政治联盟问题，他和奥朗德究竟言之何意还尚不明朗。

Perhaps silence is indeed what best suits Mr Hollande, who is not a grand visionary but prefers to wind his way forward carefully. He may not know himself what it is he wants. Above all, he will resist a rush into any proposed treaty changes that would then have to go to a referendum in France. A recent poll suggested that, if the referendum were re-run today, 64% of the French would reject the Maastricht treaty, which the country approved in 1992 only by a whisker.
也许沉默的确是最适合奥朗德的，他虽缺乏远见，却喜谨慎前行。他也许自己都不知道自己想要什么。由此看来，他会反对法国仓促实施任何条约修改建议，因为这最终会不得不通过公投来解决。最近一项民调显示，如果今天重新进行公投，64%的法国公民将会拒绝签署《马斯特里赫特条约》，而1992年，该条约在法国仅以微弱优势得以通过。