经济学人下载:惊人的胜利 亿万富翁掌权格鲁吉亚

Europe Georgian politics
欧洲 格鲁吉亚政治

A stunning victory
惊人的胜利

A billionaire has unexpectedly won Georgia’s elections
亿万富翁出人意料地赢得了格鲁吉亚大选

Bidzina Ivanishvili made a bold promise a year ago. Georgia’s richest man promised to assemble a coalition to win the parliamentary elections in 2012 and unseat the “dictatorship” of President Mikheil Saakashvili. On October 1st Mr Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream coalition won 55% of the vote. Mr Saakashvili gracefully conceded that his United National Movement (UNM) had lost, and welcomed Mr Ivanishvili into power.
一年前，格鲁吉亚首富毕齐达·伊万尼舍维里许下了一个大胆的承诺，他将组建一个联合政党来赢得2012年的议会大选，从而废除总统米哈伊尔·萨卡什维利的“独裁统治”。10月1日，伊万尼舍维里领导的格鲁吉亚之梦联盟以55%的选票赢得了选举。萨卡什维利优雅地承认他的格鲁吉亚民族联合运动失败了，同时欢迎伊万尼舍维里掌权。

But not just yet. Georgia remains a presidential republic for another year, when constitutional amendments take effect. Until then Mr Ivanishvili’s scope will be limited. He called for the president to resign at once, then rescinded. Mr Saakashvili is not budging. The coming months may be bumpy.
但是目前看来，事情并不是这样。在宪法修正案生效之前，格鲁吉亚仍将保持总统制共和国一年之久。在那之前，伊万尼舍维里先生的影响范围将会受到限制。他呼吁让总统立刻辞职，随后被撤回。萨卡什维利先生不肯做出丝毫让步。接下来的几个月将会非常艰难。

Despite the bickering, the election is a landmark. Never in Georgian history has a government changed so peacefully and lawfully. That crowns other achievements of the past eight years. Modern Georgia is a far cry from the ill-run backwater that Mr Saakashvili took over in 2003. Transport systems and other public buildings have been transformed. Petty corruption has vanished. The economy is growing fast. But unemployment and poverty are high and life for many is hard.
尽管争论不断，但是本次大选已经成为一个里程碑。这是格鲁吉亚历史上最和平，最合法的政权转换，是近八年来最伟大的成就。2003年，萨卡什维利开始接手这滩经营不善的死水，如今的格鲁吉亚已经完全不同。运输系统和其他公共建筑得到了改善，少数腐败行为消失不见，经济迅速增长。但是失业人数和贫困人口仍居高不下，许多人的生活依然非常艰难。

How Mr Ivanishvili’s disparate coalition will deal with this legacy is unclear. He has no political record and was all but unknown until a year ago. His main policy is better relations with Russia. It defeated Georgia in a short war in 2008 and occupies a fifth of its territory: the self-proclaimed states of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. A change of personality at the top should make a thaw easier. Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, once said he wanted to hang Mr Saakashvili “by the balls”.
伊万尼舍维里领导的迥然不同的联合政党将会如何处理这些遗留问题，我们不得而知。他没有任何从政历史，直到一年前才为人所知。他的主要政策就是改善与俄罗斯的关系。2008年，两国之间发生了一场短暂的战争，俄罗斯取得了胜利并占领了格鲁吉亚五分之一的领土，宣布阿布哈兹和南奥赛梯地区为独立国家。国家高层领导人态度的转变将会更有利于改善两国之间的僵硬的关系。俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普金曾怒气冲冲地声称要“牢牢地”绞死萨卡什维利先生。

The cause of the row was Georgia’s pro-Western orientation: its bid to join NATO was anathema to Russia and regarded with deep scepticism in much of the alliance. Mr Ivanishvili says he too wants to support membership of the alliance. His first trip abroad may be to America. But the new premier’s real priority will be to revive trade with Russia. Kremlin sanctions have strangled Georgian exports such as wine, fruit and mineral water.
引发争端的原因是格鲁吉亚的亲西方化的倾向：他们申请加入北大西洋公约组织，这在俄罗斯看来是对其的一种诅咒，北约也怀疑其图谋不轨。伊万尼舍维里先生表示他也支持格鲁吉亚成为北大西洋公约组织的一员。他就任后首次出访的目的地将是美国，但是新总理真正的首要任务是恢复同苏联的贸易。俄罗斯政府的制裁扼杀了格鲁吉亚酒类，水果和矿泉水的出口。

On other issues Mr Ivanishvili has been full of spleen about misrule, but hazy about what he would do differently. He has promised that he will be prime minister for no more than two years. Some doubt his coalition, of liberals, nationalists and eccentrics, will stay together once the euphoria of victory has passed. David Usupashvili, head of the Republican Party, says that Mr Ivanishvili’s business success shows he has the “ability necessary for a leader”. Such wealth “cannot be assembled by an unwise person”.
在其他问题上，伊万尼舍维里一直对暴政深恶痛绝，但是他却不太清楚如何做得与众不同。他承诺他只担任两年的总理。一些人担心一旦胜利的喜悦过后，他领导的由自由主义者、爱国主义者和怪人组成的联合政党会不会保持团结。共和党领导大卫·乌苏帕什维利认为伊万尼舍维里的商业成功表明他具备“一个领导所需的能力”。不明智的人是无法积累如此多的财富的。

Mr Saakashvili has some thinking to do, too. Nobody from his camp, or among election-watchers in Tbilisi, foresaw this outcome. Their big worry was how to keep Georgian Dream loyalists, perhaps backed by Russia, from avenging defeat with violence. The surprise highlights the complacency that is the ruling elite’s big weakness. Many in Mr Saakashvili’s party came to believe that they were destined to rule and that criticism was treachery. Now it has to play a new role of a strong loyal opposition. That may test its unity.
萨卡什维利先生也该好好思考一番了。无论是在他领导的阵营，还是第比利斯的观察团中都没有人预见到这个结果。他们巨大的担心是如何防止可能得到俄罗斯支持的格鲁吉亚之梦党的拥护者以暴力报复战败。这个出人意料地结果凸显了统治精英的一大缺点—自鸣得意。萨卡什维利领导的政党里许多人都认为他们注定会是统治者，批评意味着背叛。现在，他们要扮演一个新的角色，强大的忠实反对派。这是对他们凝聚力的考验。

The decisive factor in the election may have been videos of abuse in prison, including a man apparently being raped with a broom. Though their provenance was unclear, for many the footage crystallised resentment against the arrogance and impunity of Mr Saakashvili’s rule.
决定选举的关键因素可能是监狱里虐待犯人的视频，其中包括用扫把殴打犯人的非常明显的镜头。虽然他们的出处尚不明确，但是一个个连续镜头具体化了许多人对萨卡什维利执政的傲慢和不受惩罚的怨恨。

Neither side will find the post-election period easy. Giga Bokeria, Mr Saakashvili’s influential National Security Adviser, has said that Mr Ivanishvili has introduced “poison” into the political system.
选举结束后的这段时期对双方来说都不容易。萨卡什维利的颇具影响力的国家安全顾问吉佳·博克里亚声称伊万尼舍维里已经将“毒药”引进了政治体系。

For his part, Mr Ivanishvili said during the campaign that Mr Saakashvili and his officials would face unspecified “justice” once Georgian Dream came to power. Among other wild talk, he suggested that any supporter of Mr Saakashvili’s was an “accomplice in the cruellest crime”. Even the election result is open to challenge. Mr Saakashvili’s UNM claim that Georgian Dream activists are pressing local election commissions to change results in their favour. The NATO observation mission in Georgia has expressed “serious concern” about that.
而伊万尼舍维里在大选运动期间表示一旦格鲁吉亚之梦党上台，萨卡什维利和他的官员们将面临未指定的“法律制裁”。他在其他轻率的对话中也暗示任何萨卡什维利政党的支持者都是“最残酷的犯罪的共犯”。即使选举结果面临着挑战，萨卡什维利领导的格鲁吉亚民主联合运动党声称格鲁吉亚之梦党的积极分子在对当地的选举委员会施压，试图改变选举结果，从而对他们有利。北大西洋公约组织驻格鲁吉亚观察使团对此表达了“深切关注”。

It is all still fragile. But by admitting defeat, Mr Saakashvili handed his country a victory and wrong-footed Mr Ivanishvili, who had said that he would never be allowed to win elections. Now that he has, he has a great responsibility to the system that has vaulted him to power.
虽然一切都还很脆弱，但是通过承认失败，萨卡什维利先生传递给他的国家胜利的讯号，并使伊万尼舍维里大乱阵脚，他曾表示从未被允许赢得选举。既然他赢得了选举，那么他就该对这个支持他掌权的系统担负起应有的责任。