经济学人下载:意大利政治 桃色总理的从政之路还有多长?

Italian politics
意大利政治

Who will be Italy’s next prime minister?
谁将成为意大利下一任总理？

As Silvio Berlusconi seems to be standing aside, the spotlight is on Mario Monti and the candidates of the Left
由于西尔维奥–贝鲁斯科尼似乎要退出竞选，焦点就到了马里奥·蒙蒂以及左翼候选人身上

TWO questions have dominated Italian politics since early summer and hung like long, dark shadows over the markets’ assessment of a country that has done much to extricate itself from the euro crisis, but is still far from safe.
从今年夏初起，有两个问题就成为意大利政治的主题，它们像黑色阴影一样长期笼罩着市场对意大利的评估。尽管意大利努力摆脱欧元危机，但是它远未安全。

The first question is: “Will he, or won’t he?”. And so is the second.
第一个问题是“他会还是不会呢？”第二个问题同样是这个。

One concerns Silvio Berlusconi. In June the former prime minister and founder of the conservative People of Freedom (PdL) movement hinted heavily that he would return as his party’s candidate in the general election next spring. Since Mr Berlusconi’s years in government coincided with an almost total absence of economic growth and structural reform, investors were horrified. So were many Italians who had not enjoyed their government becoming something of a laughing stock abroad, thanks to Mr Berlusconi’s antics.
一个问题关系到西尔维奥·贝鲁斯科尼（Silvio Berlusconi），他是意大利前任总理，还发起了保守派人民自由党运动。六月份，他强烈暗示自己将在明年春天的大选中作为他所在党的候选人回归。由于贝卢斯科尼执政期间，经济几乎完全没有增长，结构性改革也几乎完全没有进行，所以这让投资者感到恐慌。而且贝卢斯科尼举止滑稽古怪，使得意大利政府在国外沦为笑柄，许多意大利人对此不满，因此他们也十分恐慌。

On October 9th Mr Berlusconi all but said he had thought better of the idea. Interviewed on one of his three television channels, the media billionaire declared himself “ready to stand aside”.
10月9日，贝卢斯科尼几乎说他经考虑后决定放弃这个想法。作为传媒界的一位亿万富翁，他拥有三个电视频道。在接受其中一个的采访中，他宣布自己“准备好退出竞选”了。

The wily tactician left some wriggle room: his renunciation was to facilitate a grand alliance of the right; if it does not happen, he could make another U-turn. Some commentators and rival politicians suspected a ruse.
这位狡猾的战术家给自己留了退路：他放弃参选能够促进右派结成大的同盟，如果这样不行的话，他可以来个大转弯。一些评论家和政治对手怀疑这是一个计谋。

But there are good reasons for Mr Berlusconi to have reconsidered. Four months ago, he felt his undoubted charisma could revive the fortunes of the PdL, which has seen its poll ratings decline ever since he handed the candidate’s mantle to Angelino Alfano, a former minister. More recently, however, they have continued to fall, as the PdL has been immersed in a flood of corruption and other scandals involving its regional and local leaders. These reflect badly on Mr Berlusconi as they show what sort of men and women acquired positions of influence under his long leadership.
但是贝卢斯科尼有充足的理由重新进行考虑。四个月前，他觉得自己毫无疑问的领导魅力能够重新给自由人民党带来好运。自从曾任部长的安杰利诺·阿尔法诺接替贝卢斯科尼之后，自由人民党的民意调查支持率就开始下降。但是最近，该党陷入大量腐败及有关地区和地方领导人的丑闻之中，使得民调支持率继续下降。这给贝卢斯科尼带来耻辱，因为它们显示了在他长期的领导下，都是哪些人获得了有影响力的职位。

Antonio Piazza, a regional PdL leader, is accused of slashing the tyres of a disabled driver who had the effrontery to use a parking bay, reserved for the disabled, in which the PdL dignitary liked to leave his Jaguar. Another PdL apparatchik was arrested on October 10th, accused of buying votes from the Calabrian mafia—the most worrying evidence yet of its penetration of northern Italian politics. According to a poll commissioned by RAI, Italy’s state broadcaster, Mr Berlusconi would lose to Mr Alfano if a primary election were held among right-wing voters.
自由人民党地区领导安东尼奥·皮耶萨（Antonio Piazza）受到指控称他划破了一个残疾人司机的轮胎。这位自由人民党高管喜欢将自己的路虎车停在残疾人专用的停车位上，而那个司机却十分放肆，使用了那个停车位。另一个自由人民党官员因向卡拉布利亚黑手党购买选票受到指控，于10月10日遭到逮捕，这是目前它渗入意大利北部政治的最令人担忧的证据。意大利国有广播公司--意大利广播电视公司的民意调查显示，如果初选在右翼选民中进行的话，贝卢斯科尼会输给阿尔法诺。

Much of Mr Berlusconi’s success in politics has been down to his ability to depict himself as a political outsider: someone far removed in speech and habits from the finagling party hacks whom most voters regard as venal and self-interested.
贝卢斯科尼取得政治成功的一大部分原因就是他能够将自己刻画为一个政治旁观者，在讲话和习惯上都与那些被大多数选民认为贪污腐败，自私自利，招摇撞骗的政客截然不同。

Ironically, the arrival in office last November of a technocratic government of authentic outsiders headed by Mario Monti has been lethal to Mr Berlusconi’s image. Compared with the prime minister, an economics professor, Mr Berlusconi looks every inch the professional Roman power-broker. And the very disenchantment with Italy’s political class that helped launch Mr Berlusconi into a new career 19 years ago is now working to sustain Mr Monti’s popularity.
具有讽刺意味的是，去年十一月，马里奥蒙蒂带领下的由真正的政治旁观者组成的技术官僚政府上台，这极大的损害了贝卢斯科尼的形象。这位总理是一个经济学专家，与他相比，贝卢斯科尼怎么看都像是罗马的权利掮客专家。19年前，贝卢斯科尼因对意大利政治阶层不再抱有幻想开始了新的生涯，但是也是这一原因发挥作用让蒙蒂一直受到欢迎。

RAI’s poll found Mr Monti was by far Italians’ first choice for prime minister, ahead of Mr Berlusconi and Pier Luigi Bersani, the leader of the biggest left-wing movement, the Democratic Party (PD). That is remarkable considering the pain the prime minister has heaped on the electorate since taking office. This week brought another