经济学人下载:川普当选总统 国际经济出现的乱象(上)

Finance and economics: The world economy: Our election, your problem
财经：世界经济：我们的选举，你们的问题

A Trump presidency will be bad for the world economy and worse for places outside America.
对于世界经济来说，特朗普总统任期将是有害的；对于美国之外的地方而言，危害就更大了。

It is not clear precisely how Donald Trump will govern, the extent to which he will carry out some of his scarier promises on trade and immigration, and who will be his economics top brass at the Treasury and in the White House.
唐纳德·特朗普将如何治国理政？他将把他那些有关贸易和移民的更加可怕的承诺贯彻到何种程度？谁将是他在财政部和白宫的经济大员？准确地说，这些还不明朗。

But a decent first guess is that President Trump will be bad for the world economy in aggregate; and a second is that his actions are likely to do more harm, in the short term at least, to economies outside America.
但是，一种像样的初步猜想是：总体而言，特朗普总统对于世界经济将是有害的；接下来的猜想是：他的举措，至少在短期内，有可能对美国之外的经济体造成更多的伤害。

When America has in the past stepped aside from its role at the centre of the global economic system, the damage has spread well beyond its borders.
当美国以前让出其在全球经济体系中心的角色时，危害远远超出了它的国界。

In 1971, when Richard Nixon ended the post-war system of fixed exchange-rates that had America at its centre, his Treasury secretary, John Connally, told European leaders, “The dollar is our currency, but your problem.”
1971年，当理查德·尼克松终结了美国位居其中心的战后固定汇率体系时，他的财政部长约翰·康纳利曾对欧洲领导人说：“美元是我们的货币，却是你们的问题。”

This election result, to paraphrase Connally, belongs to America but is potentially a bigger economic problem for everyone else.
把康纳利的话引申一下就是，这次的选举结果属于美国，但是，对其他所有人来说，很可能是一个更大的经济问题。

The scale and nature of that problem depend on the interplay of the two main elements of Mr Trump's economic populism.
这个问题的大小和性质取决于特朗普经济民粹主义的两大主要元素的相互作用。

The first is action to boost aggregate demand.
首先是提针总需求的举措。

Mr Trump favours tax cuts and extra public spending on infrastructure.
特朗普倾看中的是减税和额外的基础设施公共开支。

The second element is trade protectionism.
第二个元素是贸易保护主义。

He has pledged to slap tariffs on Chinese imports and to renegotiate the North American Free-Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with Mexico and Canada.
他已经承诺要对中国进口商品加征关税并与墨西哥和加拿大重新就北美自由贸易协定进行谈判。

To the extent that he leans more on the first element and less on the second, the immediate damage to America's economy will be limited.
就他较多地依赖第一个元素且较少地依赖第二个元素来说，对于美国经济的直接破坏将是有限的。

But even in that event, the net effect of a Trump presidency on economies outside America is still likely to be harmful.
但是，即便如此，特朗普总统任期对于美国之外的经济体的净影响依旧可能是极有害的。

To understand why, go back to the subject of Connally's gibe: the dollar.
要想明白其中的道理，回头看看康纳利风凉话的主角——美元。

As it became clear that Mr Trump would win the election, the greenback fell against rich-country currencies, such as the euro, yen, Swiss franc and pound, as investors sought a haven from policy uncertainty in America.
就在特朗普会赢得大选变得明朗起来的时候，由于投资者想要寻求一处远离美国政策不确定性的避风港，美元对欧元、日元、瑞士法郎和英镑等富裕国家的货币一度大幅下跌。

An index of its value against major currencies dropped by 2% in early trading on November 9th.
在11月9日的早盘交易中，美元对主要货币的币值指数下跌了2%。

Within hours it had regained almost all the lost ground, as investors pieced together a positive story for the dollar, based on the prospects of a boost to demand in America's economy and an inflow of capital from abroad.
随着投资者基于对美国经济需求提振和资本从海外流入的前景而为美元拼凑出一个正面的故事，它在几个小时内就收复了几乎所有的失地。

A deal between Mr Trump and Congress to cut corporate taxes, goes the logic, would spur flush American companies to repatriate retained profits held offshore.
这种逻辑认为，特朗普与国会间的给企业减税的协议会刺激大批美国公司遣返离岸持有的留存收益。

It would also allow them to increase capital spending in America, because they would have more ready cash; and consequent profits would be taxed more lightly.
这份协议还会听任这些公司提高在美国的资本开支，因为它们会有更多的现款；同时，随之而来的利润会被更轻地征税。