经济学人下载:川普当选总统 国际经济出现的乱象(下)

Yet there are risks to China's economy too, from even a milder form of Trumpian populism.
然而，对于中国经济来说，也存在着来自一种较为温和形式的特朗普式民粹主义的风险。

The dollar's weakness over the spring and summer helped stem the outflow of capital from China that had threatened to unmoor the yuan and so unsettled global financial markets at the turn of the year.
美元在春夏两季中的弱势曾对阻止早在年初就已威胁要解缆人民币、进而一度令全球金融市场动荡不安的资本从中国的外流起到帮助作用。

A sustained dollar rally would thus mean a severe headache for China's policymakers, as it would revive the pressure on its capital account.
因而，对中国决策者来说，持续的美元升势是一件很令人头疼的事情，因为这种升势会复活对其资本账户的压力。

They might then face an unpalatable choice: let the yuan sink against the dollar or keep domestic monetary policy tighter to support it.
这样，他们就可能面临一种难以接受的选择：要么放任人民币对美元下跌，要么在国内维持从紧的货币政策以支撑人民币。

China is safe from the biggest indirect effect of Mr Trump's victory: the boost it gives other populist politicians.
至于特朗普胜利的最大的非直接影响——这种胜利给予其他民粹主义政客的提振，中国是安全的。

Europe is far more vulnerable.
欧洲就要脆弱的多得多了。

Britain's vote in June to leave the European Union was one early ballot-box reflection of anti-establishment sentiment.
6月的英国脱欧投票是反对现有体制情绪的一种早期的票箱反映。

Since then, insurgent political parties in France, Germany, Italy and elsewhere have called for referendums on membership.
自那以后，法国、德国、意大利以及其他国家的造反政党就在呼吁就欧盟成员国资格进行公投。

Such parties typically favour trade barriers and limits on immigration, and are gaining in popularity.
这类政党一般都对贸易壁垒和移民限制青睐有加，而且正在积聚人气。

The euro area's economy has been faring better in recent years, but the single currency remains fragile.
近年来，欧元区的经济一直都在较好地前行。但是，单一货币仍然脆弱不堪。

The kind of cross-border risk-sharing needed to put the euro on a sound footing is at odds with the rising tides of nationalism and populism.
为将欧元置于一种坚实基础之上所必需的跨境风险共担与日渐高涨的民族主义和民粹主义浪潮势如水火。

An immediate hurdle is Italy's referendum on constitutional reform on December 4th.
一个即将到来的障碍是12月4日的意大利宪法改革公投。

A defeat would weaken Matteo Renzi, the reformist prime minister, and embolden the populist Five Star Movement, which favours ditching the euro.
失败会削弱该国的改革派总理马泰奥·伦齐，让倾向于放弃欧元的民粹主义五星运动更加肆无忌惮。

Around 14% of the euro area's goods exports go to America, quite a bit less than China's 18%.
大约14%的欧元区商品出口到美国，比中国的18%少一点。

But America accounts for about 40% of the currency zone's recent export growth, according to economists at HSBC, a bank.
但是，据汇丰银行经济学家，美国大约占该货币区近来出口增长的40%。

So American protectionism is arguably a bigger threat to Europe than to China.
因此，美国的保护主义可以说是一种对欧洲比对中国更大的威胁。

The whole world has much to fear from Mr Trump's threats to tear up trade agreements and impose punitive tariffs on imports.
整个世界都对来自特朗普撕毁贸易协议并对进口施加惩罚性关税的威胁深感忧虑。

And even if he refrains from starting a trade war, the loose-tongued, fact-lite style he cultivated during the campaign could wreak serious damage when he is president.
同时，即便他在开启贸易战上做出退让，他在选战期间养成的口无遮拦、罔顾事实的风格也可能在他总统任上造成严重的破坏。

His hyperbolic threats now carry the weight of the American presidency.
如今，他的夸大其词的威胁具有美国总统的分量。

His victory was enough to chill some financial markets; what he might do with it could spark full-scale panic.
他的胜利足以让一些金融市场感到寒心；他可能以之而做出的行为可能激起全面的恐慌。

Even short of that, like the Brexit vote, it marks an alarming step away from a liberal, open economic order towards more isolationism and less prosperity.
纵然没有造成恐慌，就像英国脱欧那样，这也标志着令人担忧的远离自由开放的经济秩序、走向更多的孤立主义和较少的繁荣的一步。