经济学人下载:从0到70(十亿) 优步究竟经历了什么(1)

Briefing: Uber: From zero to seventy (billion)
简报：优步：从0到70（十亿）

The accelerated life and times of the world's most valuable startup.
加快的生活步伐以及全球最具价值创业公司。

Several of America's great industrialists built empires in Pittsburgh, including Andrew Carnegie, a steel magnate.
美国一些伟大的实业家在匹兹堡建立了产业帝国，包括钢铁大王安德鲁·卡内基。

Now the city is attracting the attention of a new, aspiring robber baron.
如今该城市又吸引了另一位有抱负的强盗资本家（特拉维斯·卡拉尼克）的注意力。

Last year the ride-hailing firm Uber swooped down on a robotics research centre run by Carnegie Mellon University in search of autonomous-vehicle expertise.
去年，叫车服务公司优步一头扎进卡内基·梅隆大学的机器人技术研发中心，寻求自动驾驶汽车的专业技术。

It has been testing self-driving cars on Pittsburgh's roads for months, and will soon begin offering customers the chance to request rides in one.
优步已在匹兹堡道路上对自动驾驶车辆进行了为期数月的测试，乘客很快就能召唤到自动驾驶车辆。

Since the launch of its first smartphone app, UberCab, in 2010, the startup has attracted $18 billion in equity and debt.
优步公司自2010年开发了首款手机应用优步出租车（UberCab）后，便以股权和债权方式融资到180亿美元。

Today it carries a valuation of close to $70 billion, making it by far the largest of the startup “unicorns” worth over $1 billion.
如今优步市值接近700亿美元，成为 “独角兽”型企业（指估值超过10亿美元的创业公司）中市值最大的一家公司。

No technology firm in history has raised more money from private investors before going public.
历史上还没有哪家公司在上市之前便获得如此多的私人投资。

Its deep-pocketed backers include Saudi Arabia's sovereign-wealth fund, mutual funds, Silicon Valley venture capitalists and a crowd of other firms.
优步的大财主有沙特阿拉伯主权财富基金、共同基金、硅谷资本家和其他众多的公司。

They are stalking the next big win in the technology business at a time when returns from other assets are widely disappointing.
眼下其他资产投资回报普遍让人失望，他们纷纷将资金赌注到下一场技术热潮的到来。因此这些大财主都盯着技术行业，准备大赢一场。

Uber operates in more than 425 cities in 72 countries and has around 30m monthly users.
优步已在全球72个国家中的多于425个城市开展业务，每月用户达到3000万左右。

In 2016 it will probably have around $4 billion in net revenues, more than double the previous year’s.
优步2016年的净收入预计将达到40亿美元左右，是去年的两倍多。

Originally dedicated to connecting customers with limos and other ritzy rides, since 2012 it has offered a peer-to-peer service called UberX that lets drivers of all sorts of cars offer rides to passengers using its app.
优步最初致力于让顾客享受到高级、豪华轿车的服务，但自2012年起，优步推出了点对点的服务，即UberX，借此所有类型的汽车的司机都能搭载使用该应用的乘客。

This service now accounts for the bulk of the firm’s revenues.
优步的收入有很大一部分来自该项服务。

The company also offers an UberPool service that allows several passengers travelling in the same direction to share a ride.
优步还提供拼车（Uberpool）服务，前往同一方向的乘客可以共享一辆车。

It does not own its car fleet, but takes a cut of the fare in return for providing the platform that allows the drivers to work—typically 25%, with the rest going to the driver.
优步并没有自己的车队，但它从使用优步平台的车主中抽成，通常抽成25%，剩下的归车主。

The company combines great name recognition with huge potential for growth.
优步因其巨大的增长潜力不断获得品牌知名度。

Like Facebook and Google before it, it has its own verb ( “Let's Uber there” ) .
与此前的脸书和谷歌相同，优步已然可以当成动词使用(我们优步过去吧)。

Speaking to The Economist, Travis Kalanick, the company's co-founder and boss, says his goal is not simply to disrupt the taxi market but to make ride-sharing so cheap and convenient that using Uber becomes an alternative to owning a car.
优步的联合创始人及老板，特拉维斯·卡拉尼克（Travis Kalanick）在接受经济学人的采访时表示，优步的目标不仅仅是改变现有的出租车市场，而是降低租车价格，提高服务便利性，推动优步最终可以成为自有车辆的替代之选。

Meanwhile, he is pushing into new areas, such as delivering food and packages.
与此同时，他还在积极拓展新领域，例如外卖和快递行业。

Last month Uber acquired Otto, a newborn autonomous-lorry company, for around $600m and 20% of Uber's future profits from trucking.
上个月，优步以大约6亿美元的价格收购了奥拓，一家成立不久的公司主营无人驾驶型货车，收购奥拓的资金占到优步未来货车行业利润的20%。

If Uber can pull all this off, it could be one of the biggest companies in the world—one which plays a critical role in the lives of consumers and the fabric of cities.
如果优步能够实现所有的雄心壮志，便可以成为世界级的企业巨头，对消费者的生活以及城市面貌产生重要影响。

The potential for profit is enormous.
（由此可见）优步在盈利能力上有巨大的潜力。

Worldwide spending on internet advertising, the business that sustains internet giants like Google and Facebook, will be $175 billion this year—larger than the taxi market, which is estimated at roughly $100 billion.
互联网广告业务是网络巨头谷歌及脸书持续盈利的主要来源，今年广告业投放在互联网的资金预计达到1750亿美元，超过投放于出租车市场的金额（粗略估计为1000亿美元）。

But the global market for personal mobility is worth as much as $10 trillion, according to Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley, a bank.
但是摩根士丹利银行的亚当·乔纳斯推测，为人员流动提供便利的全球市场价值高达10万亿美元。

These prospects go some way to explaining a valuation higher than the market value of 87% of firms in the S&P 500 and more than a third higher than that of General Motors, which had a gargantuan $152 billion in sales last year.
尽管去年通用汽车的销售额达到惊人的1520亿美元，优步的市值依然比通用汽车高出三分之一。优步的市值击败了标准普尔指数500中87%的公司，究其原因，正是上述所提到的优步的（发展）前景。

Unsurprisingly, a valuation of around 17 times the loss-making company's 2016 revenues spurs a certain amount of scepticism.
这就是为什么人们怀疑优步何以能在持续亏损的情况下市值能达到2016年营收的17倍。

Such a figure can be justified only by lots of future growth, which will cost yet more money.
只有在未来实现巨幅增长才能证明这个数字不是无稽之谈，而增长需要大量资金。

But when Uber goes public, perhaps as soon as next year, in order to provide an exit for current investors, will its new shareholders be willing to tolerate continuing losses in the name of growth?
但是如果优步成为上市公司（时间最早可能在明年），为现有的投资者提供撤资渠道，新的股东是否会愿意为了未来的增长持续忍受亏损呢？

There are other questions, too.
问题不仅限于此。

Are the barriers to entry in Uber's business high enough to defend it against rivals such as Lyft in America, Ola in India and Grab in South-East Asia, and from future competition from the likes of Alphabet's Google?
进入打车行业的门槛是否足够高，能够将优步的竞争对手，譬如美国的Lyft，印度的Ola及东南亚的Grab公司拒之门外。Uber在未来是否又能抵御Alphabet旗下的谷歌以及其他同类公司的竞争呢？

Will regulation hamstring its growth?
(市场)监管是否会挫伤优步的增长呢？

And perhaps most crucially, how will it manage the transition to driverlessness?
最重要的是，优步将如何向无人驾驶转型呢？

The firm's long-term success lies in changing the way people and goods get moved around—exactly the area that autonomous vehicles will disrupt.
优步要想保持成功就需要改变人员及货物运输方式，而无人驾驶车辆势必在这一领域带来颠覆性的影响。

The company feels a pressing need to navigate this technological change before the carmakers and rival technology companies provide competitive visions of the future of transport, and of who will profit from it.
优步公司在科技领域推动变革可谓迫在眉睫，必须先于汽车制造商以及同业竞争者，预见未来交通领域发展趋势，以及从这一趋势中获利的实体。