经济学人下载:从0到70(十亿) 优步究竟经历了什么(2)

Two of today's digital giants provide a useful guide to Uber's position and plans.
当下，两大科技巨头可以在市场定位和发展计划方面为优步提供借鉴之处。

Its executives never have Amazon far from their minds as they plot their company's future, says Bill Gurley,
比尔·格利表示，优步的执行官在描绘公司未来蓝图时始终在借鉴亚马逊的经验。

a venture capitalist at Benchmark Capital, who invested in Uber and sits on its board.
他是风投公司Benchmark Capital的风险投资人，同时也是优步的投资者兼董事。

Amazon has favoured relentless growth over the pursuit of profits for much of its history, keeping prices low to win loyalty and grab market share.
自成立至今，亚马逊绝大部分时间都在致力于压低价格以求赢得客户忠诚度，扩大市场份额，亚马逊更加看重快速增长而并非实现盈利。

Uber is trying a similar track by subsidising drivers to keep fares down, by rapidly expanding into new cities and by launching new services, such as the delivery of food and other items.
优步效仿亚马逊，为司机提供补贴从而降低车费，不断向新城市扩张，开发新服务，包括外卖等。

Investors like to see the company in terms of Facebook.
投资者喜欢拿脸书和优步作比较。

When the social network accepted an investment from Microsoft that valued it at $15 billion in 2007, a time when it had not shown any real propensity to make money, this was decried as folly.
2007年，微软向社交网站脸书注资，根据微软的估价，脸书的市值为150亿美元。彼时，脸书尚没有表现出盈利能力，微软注资的决定遭遇非难，看似愚不可及。

When it filed to go public at a valuation of around $100 billion in 2012, accusations of madness came back, based on worries about the company's ability to adapt to the mobile phone.
2012年，脸书以市场价值约合1000亿美元申请上市时，近乎疯狂的指责卷土重来，起因是人们担心脸书不能适应手机（模式）。

Today Facebook has a market value of more than $360 billion.
时至今日，脸书的市场价值超过3600亿美元。

A fear of missing out on the internet's next Facebook-sized hit is a big factor in the flood of capital into Uber's coffers.
投资者向优步大量注资很大程度上是担心错失互联网的下一个脸书效应。

Investors' bullishness is bolstered by Uber's position at the intersection of three linked disruptive trends.
投资者对优步的前景看好也与优步的市场定位有关，优步处在三大相互关联且具有颠覆性趋势的交点上。

First is the emergence of asset-light business models.
首先，低资产商业模型的出现。

The cost of expanding is far lower for a startup that does not own its own cars or consider its drivers employees.
对于不用自购汽车、雇佣驾驶员的创业公司来说，扩张成本大大降低。

Second is the shift to the sharing economy, which underlies the success of peer-to-peer services; a system that lets people do as much or as little as they like attracts workers.
其二，共享经济成为潮流，为点对点服务的成功奠定了基础，由于不再强制分配工作量，该系统对于劳动者的吸引力有所上升。

The third is that consumers, especially young consumers, are increasingly happy to pay for access to things, rather than own them outright.
其三，消费者，特别是年轻的消费群体，日益热衷于为商品的使用权买单，而不是所有权。

The average cost per mile of UberX is probably around $1.50 (euro 0.84/km) .
UberX车型的车辆每行驶1英里，平均费用约为1.50美元（合计0.84英镑每公里）。

It already costs more than that to own a car in some places.
在有些地方，使用优步车辆比驾驶私家车还要昂贵。

In New York City, car ownership works out at around $3 a mile.
在纽约市，私家车的驾驶成本是每英里3美元。

All told, about 14% of people in the urban centres of America's top 20 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) may find it cheaper to use UberX at current rates than to own a car,
总体看来，在美国前20的都市统计区域（MSAs）的城市中心区，约14%的人认为使用UberX服务（当前价格）比私家车成本更低。

according to Rod Lache of Deutsche Bank.
以上为德意志银行的罗德·拉奇的推测，

The more Uber can bring costs down, the more widely it will compete with car ownership.
优步的服务价格越低，与私家车竞争的实力就越强。

Mr Lache reckons that autonomous cars might bring the price per mile down to 89 cents or less—below the average cost per mile for car owner ship across all 20 top American MSAs.
罗德·拉奇同时推测，无人驾驶车辆将会把每英里服务价格降至89美分甚至更少，低于美国前20的都市统计区域（MSAs）内私家车的平均驾驶成本。

Cost is not the only reason someone would give up a car; convenience and time matter, too.
部分人放弃买车不仅仅是因为成本，便利和时间也是需要考虑的因素。

Like Amazon, though, Uber understands that low prices hook customers and is trying to push them down more.
然而，如同亚马逊一样，优步清楚低价可以吸引客户，同时也在尽力压低价格招徕更多客户。

In San Francisco the price of an UberX ride is half what it was two years ago.
在旧金山，UberX旅行价格是两年前的一半。

An UberPool costs around half of an UberX ride.
UberPool的费用大概是UberX的一半。

Even without an interest in forming habits, though, Uber would have little choice about low prices—because it has competition.
然而，即使优步不想压低价格，它也别无选择，因为它面临着竞争。

The switching costs for both passengers and drivers are relatively low, which means new entrants can buy market share by subsidising trips and earnings.
对乘客和司机来说，换一个打车公司的成本并不高，这也意味着新的竞争者可以通过给司机和乘客发放补贴来获取市场份额。

The same exuberance that has driven up Uber's valuation has also given its rivals the resources with which to attack it.
繁荣的市场提升了优步的市值，同时给对手提供了攻击优步的资源。

Lyft, with 20% of the American market to Uber's 80%, is spending an estimated $50m a month to increase its share, and in many places it has been succeeding.
相比于优步所占的80%，Lyft所占的市场份额仅为20%，而后者每月投入了约5000万美金来提高它的比例，这一举措已在多地卓有成效。

Uber has had to pay out to avoid losing passengers and drivers in key markets.
优步不得不继续投钱来避免核心市场中乘客和司机的流失。

New companies, hearing of gold in the ride-hailing hills, have rushed in; two startups, Juno and Via, have toeholds in New York.
因为发现打车服务是座金山，公司们蜂拥而至。在纽约已基本站稳脚跟的就有两个：Juno 和 Via。

Being the biggest company in a market helps a lot, because customers want short waiting times and drivers want frequent fares.
当市场里的龙头老大是很有优势的，因为乘客不想等太久而司机想多接客。

But fighting off competitors still costs money.
但要打败竞争者，也颇费财银。

After claiming earlier this year that its developed-market business had become profitable, Uber lost an estimated $100m in America in the second quarter.
年初优步称其成熟市场业务已实现盈利，然而二季度优步美国亏损约1亿美元