经济学人下载:瑞士房产 心痛之处是为家(上)

Finance and economics: Property in Sweden Home is where the heartache is
财经：瑞士房产，心痛之处是为家

House prices in Sweden continue to soar, to regulators' despair.
瑞典房价持续飙升，监管机构感到绝望。

ASK a central banker what regulators should do when rock-bottom rates cause house prices to soar, and the reply will almost always be “macropru”.
如果要问央行行长，最低利率导致房价飙升时，监管机构该怎么办，答案通常是“宏观审慎”。

Raising rates to burst house-price bubbles is a bad idea, the logic runs, since the needs of the broader economy may not square with those of the property market.
按理来说，通过加息消除房价泡沫并不是一个好主意，因为人们对整体经济的需求与对房地产市场的需求可能不相符合。

Instead, “macroprudential” measures, meaning restrictions on mortgage lending and borrowing, are seen as the answer.
事实上，“宏观审慎”措施，即对按揭贷款和借款加以限制，才是人们眼中的答案。

But this medicine is hard to administer, as Sweden's housing market vividly illustrates.
但瑞典房地产市场却生动地表明，这剂药方很难奏效。

Swedish house prices have doubled in the past decade, their rapid ascent only briefly interrupted by the financial crisis.
过去十年里，瑞典房价翻了一番，这种飞速的上升趋势仅仅被金融危机短暂地打断了一下。

So far this year they have risen by about 14%. Apartment prices have been even giddier, rising by more than 150% in ten years.
截至今年，房价上升了约14%。公寓价格涨速更是令人头晕目眩，10年内已上升逾150%。

In part, this is a simple function of supply and demand.
一部分原因可以归结为简单的供需问题。

Stockholm is among Europe's fastest-growing cities, with the recent influx of Middle Eastern refugees only adding to the demand for housing.
斯德哥尔摩是欧洲发展速度最快的城市之一，而由于最近中东难民的大量涌入，人们对房子的需求进一步增加。

Last month the country's migration agency said it expected as many as 190,000 new arrivals by the end of the year, double its previous estimate.
上个月，瑞典移民局表示，到今年年底，预计多达19万名新移民到来，为之前预期的两倍。

Sluggish and restrictive planning procedures limit supply: the current shortage of around 150,000 homes is expected to triple by 2025.
迟缓且严格的规划程序限制了房屋供应：当前，约15万间房屋短缺，到2025年，这一数字将翻三倍。

A counterproductive rent-control regime has crimped the supply of flats in particular, and led to long waiting lists.
租金定价制度产生了适得其反的效果，显著阻碍了公寓供应，并导致了漫长的等候名单。

Earlier this year an apartment in central Stockholm went to someone who had been in the queue since 1989.
今年早些时候，一名自1989年就开始排队的人才终于等到了属于他的一间位于斯德哥尔摩中心地区的公寓。

Low interest rates have given Swedes the capacity to borrow more, pushing prices ever higher.
低利率使瑞典人更有能力继续借钱，促使价格持续高涨。

The debt of the average household has reached 172% of income after tax.
平均家庭债务已达税后收入的172%。

For people with mortgages in the big cities, the figure is nearly double that.
对于在大城市的抵押者，该数字将近翻一番。

The most obvious way to calm things down is to raise rates.
平息事态最显而易见的方法是提高利率。

But the Riksbank, Sweden's central bank, tried that in 2010-11, with disastrous results.
但瑞典的中央银行瑞典央行(Riksbank)在2010-11年便尝试过此方法，却导致了灾难性的后果。

Unemployment stopped falling and inflation soon withered, stirring fears of deflation.
失业率停止下降，通货膨胀很快萎缩，激起了人们对通货紧缩的恐惧。

That prompted the Riksbank to reverse course in late 2011 and start cutting rates again.
这促使瑞典央行在2011年底改变进程，重新开始削减利率。

The benchmark has ended up lower than it was to begin with, at -0.35%, increasing the sums flooding into housing.
最终，基准降到了-0.35%，比最开始还低，涌向房市的资金增加。

“It's like mopping whilst the tap is running at full flow,” complains one official.
“这就如同大开水龙头拖地，”一名官员抱怨道。

To try to stanch the flow, the Finansinspektionen (FI) , the country's financial watchdog, has adopted curbs on both lending and borrowing.
为了止住资金流，瑞典金融监管部门瑞典金融监管局(FI)采取了一系列抑制贷款和借款的措施。

In 2013 it tightened capital requirements for mortgages, and since September it has required banks to hold an extra counter-cyclical capital buffer of 1% of all risk-weighted assets, to increase to 1.5% by next June.
2013年，它加强了对抵押贷款的资本要求，自9月起，它要求银行对于所有风险资产增持额外的1%作为逆周期资本缓冲准备金，到下一年6月，该数字将增至1.5%。

This will help if the property bubble bursts, but clearly has not been enough to stop it inflating.
尽管该举措将在房地产泡沫破灭时有所帮助，但远不能阻止通胀。