经济学人下载:人机对战 落后国家收到威胁

Finance and economics: Robots v humans Machine earning
财经：人机对战，机器学习

Jobs in poor countries may be especially vulnerable to automation.
贫穷国家的工作岗位更容易受到自动化的冲击。

Bill burr, an American entertainer, was dismayed when he first came across an automated checkout.
美国艺人Bill burr第一次使用自动收银台时感觉很不自然。

“I thought I was a comedian; evidently I also work in a grocery store,” he complained. “I can't believe I forgot my apron.”
他抱怨说：“我感觉我就像一个小丑，就像是我也在杂货店工作。就差自己给自己带一个围裙了”。

Those whose jobs are at risk of being displaced by machines are no less grumpy.
那些工作有被机器取代风险的人们仍然是烦躁的。

A study published in 2013 by Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne of Oxford University stoked anxieties when it found that 47% of jobs in America were vulnerable to automation.
在2013年，牛津大学的Carl Benedikt Frey 和 Michael Osborne公布的研究报告增加了（人们的）焦虑情绪。报告中指出美国47%的工作会受到自动化的影响。

Machines are mastering ever more intricate tasks, such as translating texts or diagnosing illnesses.
机器正在掌握更复杂的能力，例如翻译文本或者诊断病情。

Robots are also becoming capable of manual labour that hitherto could be carried out only by dexterous humans.
到目前为止，机器人的动手能力也越来越接近熟练工。

Yet America is the high ground when it comes to automation, according to a new report from the same pair along with other authors.
而据来自同一研究机构的新报告指出，在自动化进程中，美国还是有优势的。

The proportion of threatened jobs is much greater in poorer countries: 69% in India, 77% in China and as high as 85% in Ethiopia.
在更落后国家中失业率将会更加加剧：印度69%，中国77%，埃塞俄比亚高达85%。

There are two reasons. First, jobs in such places are generally less skilled.
有两个原因。第一：这些地方的工作一般缺乏技术含量。

Second, there is less capital tied up in old ways of doing things.
第二：旧的生产方式占用较少的资金。

Driverless taxis might take off more quickly in a new city in China, for instance, than in an old one in Europe.
例如：比起欧洲某个古老的城市，无人驾驶可能更快的在中国的新城市中投入。

Attracting investment in labour-intensive manufacturing has been a route to riches for many developing countries, including China.
包括中国在内的许多发展中国家，在劳动密集型制造业吸引投资是一个致富的方法。

But having a surplus of cheap labour is becoming less of a lure to manufacturers.
但是拥有过剩的廉价劳动力对制造商的吸引越来越小。

An investment in industrial robots can be repaid in less than two years.
工业机器人的投资不用两年就可以回本。

This is a particular worry for the poor and underemployed in Africa and India, where industrialisation has stalled at low levels of income—a phenomenon dubbed “premature deindustrialisation” by Dani Rodrik of Harvard University.
在落后以及低就业率的非洲和印度这样的情况尤其值得担心，这些国家的工业化进程已经完全滞后在一个低收入水平。哈弗大学的Dani Rodrik把这也现象称为“过早的工业倒退”。

Rich countries have more of the sorts of jobs that are harder for machines to replicate—those that require original ideas (creating advertising) , or complex social interactions (arguing a case in court) , or a blend of analysis and dexterity (open-heart surgery) .
富裕的国家能提供更多样，并且不是机器能简单复制的工作，例如那些需要创意的（广告），需要复杂的社会活动（律师），以及需要融合分析和熟练操作的工作（开胸手术）。

But poorer countries are not powerless.
但是更落后的国家不是无能为力的。

Just because a job is deemed at risk from automation, it does not necessarily mean it will be replaced soon, notes Mr Frey.
Frey先生解释说：“虽然一份工作存在被自动化取代的风险，但它不一定意味着不久就会被取代。”

The cheapness of labour in relation to capital affects the rate of automation.
与廉价劳动力相关的投资成本影响了自动化的普及。

Passing laws that make it less costly to hire and fire workers is likely to slow its advance.
法律允许的雇佣和解雇工人的低成本也容易减缓它的迭代。

Scale also matters: farms in many poor countries are often too small to benefit from machines that have been around for decades.
规模同样会影响它：许多落后国家的农业规模太小以至于不能从自动化中得到利润，这样的情况持续了差不多有数十年。

Consumer preferences are a third barrier.
消费习惯是第三个障碍。

Mr Burr is hardly alone in hating automated checkouts, which explains why 3m cashiers are still employed in America.
Burr先生不是唯一一个讨厌自动收银的人，这很好的解释了为什么美国仍然有三百万的收营员。