经济学人下载:最佳猜测 测算朝鲜经济的创新方法

Finance and Economics
财经

North Korean Data: Best Guesses
朝鲜数据：最佳猜测

Creative ways of measuring the North Korean economy.
测算朝鲜经济的创新方法

FACTS about the North Korean economy are not so much alternative as non-existent.
关于朝鲜经济的真相与其说是另类的，不如说是不真实。

The country has never published a statistical yearbook.
该国从未公布过一份统计年鉴。

If it did, no one would believe it.
如果有，也没有人会相信。

Nicholas Eberstadt of the American Enterprise Institute, a think-tank, calls analysis of its economy “essentially pre-quantitative”.
美国企业研究所的智囊团Nicholas Eberstad称，该国的经济分析“基本上是预先定量分析”。

The most-cited estimate of the size of the economy comes from South Korea’s central bank.
被引用最多的朝鲜经济规模的数据来自于韩国央行。

Its methodology is opaque but is based, at least in part, on the South Korean intelligence agency’s estimates of the North’s physical output, which is then translated to South Korean prices.
其方法晦涩难懂，但至少有一部分是基于韩国的情报单位对朝鲜的实物产出所估计的，然后转换成韩国的价格。

But it is hard to estimate market valuations for goods that are not traded on the market, and physical goods make up only a fraction of overall economic output.
但是，不在市场上进行贸易的货物的市场价值却难以估测，并且实物商品仅仅占据总经济产出的一部分。

Another technique is to “mirror” statistics from the country’s trading partners.
另一种技术是根据朝鲜贸易伙伴的的数据进行镜像研究。

But most North Korean trade is with China, where statistics are unreliable.
但是，朝鲜的绝大多数贸易是与中国进行的，其中的数据也不可信。

The advent of satellite imaging has helped, providing researchers with better estimates of manufacturing output, coal production and urbanisation.
卫星图像的出现颇有帮助，为研究制造业产量，煤炭生产和城镇化提供了更好地估测数据。

Yet another strategy is to work out national income from non-economic data.
另一种策略是从非经济数据中算出国民收入。

The Hyundai Research Institute, a consultancy, publishes another widely cited estimate of the North Korean economy based on a model that incorporates both infant-mortality rates and crop yields, two variables for which the numbers are at least plausible.
现代经济研究所，一家咨询机构，发布了另一项被广泛引用的朝鲜经济估测数据，这项估计由婴儿死亡率和粮食产量这两项至少算可靠的变量组成。

A recent paper by Suk Lee of the Korea Development Institute, a South Korean government think-tank, puts a new spin on this approach.
韩国开发研究院（韩国政府的智囊团）李硕最近发表的论文重新阐释了这种方法。

It estimates North Korea’s national income by comparing the share of its households that use solid fuels for cooking with that in other lower-income countries.
该方法通过比较朝鲜与其他国家的家庭做饭用固体燃料所占比例来估算朝鲜的国民收入。

The data, as reported by the North Korean census of 2008, show that nearly 93% of households lack access to gas or electricity and rely on firewood or coal.
2008年，朝鲜人口普查发布的数据显示，有近90%的住户因缺乏燃气和电只能依靠柴火和煤炭。

Assuming the numbers bear some relation to reality, they put North Korea in line with countries such Uganda and Haiti, and suggest that North Korea’s purchasing-power-adjusted income per person was somewhere between $948 and $1,361 in 2008.
他们认为这些数据有事实支撑，并把朝鲜和乌干达和海地等国家归为一类，且认为在2008年朝鲜根据购买力调整的人均收入在948美元到1361美元之间。

North Korea’s economy has made great strides since the country’s famine in the 1990s.
自从1990年的饥荒年代后，朝鲜的经济已经取得了快速发展。

The government has tacitly allowed the market economy to grow.
政府也默许市场经济的增长。

Although the rest of the country is still indisputably poor, visitors to Pyongyang, at least, cannot help but note the rise of shops and taxis.
无可争议，这个国家仍然是很穷，但是至少游客在平壤，能够发现商店和出租车的增多。

The paradox is that as the North Korean economy modernises, the data may actually be deteriorating.
矛盾的是，随着朝鲜经济的现代化，其数据实际上可能是恶化的。

The size of the country’s apparently burgeoning service sector is a complete mystery.
对于这个国家新兴的服务业的规模依然全然不知。

Many scholars believe that the South Korean numbers are too low.
许多学者认为，韩国的数值太低。

Welcome though it is for poor North Koreans, growth may be bad for statisticians.
尽管（数值）增长对贫穷的朝鲜人来说是受欢迎的，但可能对统计学家不利。