经济学人下载:适得其反 特朗普反堕胎恢复"墨西哥城政策"

United States
美国

Abortion Policy: Gag Reflex
堕胎政策：适得其反

A policy intended to cut abortions is likely to do just the opposite.
试图降低堕胎率的政策却适得其反。

One ritual has become familiar for a president’s first week in the Oval Office.
历届美国总统在就任第一周里都要进行一项“仪式”。

It has long been illegal for federal money to be used to fund abortions anywhere.
长期以来，联邦资金都被禁止用于资助任何地区与堕胎相关的事务。

On January 23rd, four days into his presidency, Donald Trump signed an executive order that bans government aid to foreign non-governmental organisations that “actively promote” abortion, for example by telling a woman that abortion is a legally available option.
1月23日，唐纳德·特朗普在其就任美国总统第四天的时候签署了一项总统令，禁止政府对“积极提倡（例如向女性告知堕胎合法）”堕胎的外国非政府组织提供官方援助。

Since 1984, when the policy first came about, it has been swiftly revoked by incoming Democratic presidents and reinstated by Republican ones.
自1984年该政令首次出台起，它就备受争议，继任的民主党总统不断将其废除，而共和党总统却总会把它恢复。

Past experience suggests that this “global gag rule” will lead to more abortions, not fewer.
根据以往经验来看，这项“全球计划生育遏制政策”将导致堕胎率升高，而非降低。

A study by researchers at Stanford University found that after the policy came into effect in 2001, the abortion rate increased sharply in sub-Saharan African countries that had been receiving substantial amounts of aid for family-planning programmes.
斯坦福大学研究人员进行的一项调查显示，这项政策在2001年施行之后，得到计划生育计划实质性援助的撒哈拉以南非洲国家中堕胎率急剧上升。

By contrast, the abortion rate remained stable in countries that were less dependent on such aid.
与之相反的是，对此类援助依赖性较小的国家中堕胎率仍保持稳定。

The study, as well as anecdotal accounts and research by NGOs, suggest that abortions rose because of cuts in the supply of contraceptives.
根据这项研究以及来自非政府组织的各种调查与一些未经证实的说法，堕胎率上升的原因是避孕药物供应减少。

In many poor countries NGOs funded by Western governments are big providers of contraceptives, and many fall foul of the Mexico City policy (named after the population conference at which it was first unveiled).
在许多贫穷国家，免费发放的避孕药物大多来自受西方国家政府资助的非政府组织，而其中大部分违反了“墨西哥城政策”（首次提出该政策的人口会议在墨西哥城召开，由此得名）。

Some provide abortions, others just information on where a safe, legal abortion can be obtained.
他们中的一些提供堕胎服务，另一些仅提供可安全合法地施行堕胎手术的诊所信息。

Both can be life-saving: many women die from botched abortions, even in countries where abortion is legal.
这两种做法都能挽救生命：即使在可合法堕胎的国家中，也有许多女性因堕胎手术失败而不幸身亡。

Some NGOs have chosen to close clinics rather than accept money with the new strings.
一些非政府组织选择关掉诊所，而不是接受附加新规的资金援助。

Marie Stopes International, a British NGO, estimates the measure could cut 1.5m women off its family planning services in 2017 and lead to 2.2m more abortions in the next four years.
根据英国非政府机构玛丽斯特普国际组织的估计，在2017年，该举措将使150万女性得不到原有的计划生育服务，从而导致接下来的四年中将新增堕胎案例220万例。

In the past, European countries have upped their aid for family-planning programmes to fill what an EU official called the “decency gap” in aid.
过去，欧洲国家通过提高其计划生育计划援助力度来弥补这种后果（欧盟称之为援助上的“礼节性差距”）。

A day after Mr Trump resurrected the policy the Dutch government said it will set up a special fund to counter its impact.
在特朗普重新推行该政策后的第二天，荷兰政府宣布将设立一项专项资金，用以抵消该政策的影响。

This time round the gap could be larger.
这一次，差距变得更大了。

Previously, the Mexico City policy applied only to aid for family-planning programmes, which in 2016 stood at about $600m.
很明显，墨西哥城政策仅针对计划生育计划的援助，在2016年，该计划的援助资金总额为大约6亿美元。

Mr Trump’s version covers all global health aid, a pot as large as $9.5bn a year.
而特朗普新推行的政策却涵盖了所有全球性健康援助，资金总量达到95亿美元之巨。

That is about a third of rich countries’ total foreign aid for health care.
这相当于所有发达国家在卫生保健方面所提供健康援助资金的三分之一。

Nobody knows how many NGOs will shun money under the new rules.
到底会有多少非政府组织迫于新规的压力而停止援助服务尚不得而知。

The casualties may include the foot soldiers in America’s global campaign against HIV/AIDS, which has beaten back the disease in Africa. (George W. Bush made an exception for HIV/AIDS when he resurrected the Mexico City rules.)
但至少在美洲地区，战斗在全球艾滋病抗击运动第一线的仁人志士们将首当其冲（这项运动曾在非洲地区取得显著成效，美国前总统乔治·布什在恢复墨西哥城政策时将艾滋病相关援助定为特例）。

Supporters of the policy see it as pro-life.
支持者们认为这项政策是在挽救生命。

Sadly, the probable outcome may be just the opposite.
但不幸的是，其后果很可能恰恰相反。