经济学人下载:收缩包装 经济增长与经济衰退程度挂钩(2)

To their surprise, they found that growth during years of economic expansion has fallen in the recent era—from 3.88% between 1820 and 1870 to 3.06% since 1950—even though average growth across all years in those two periods increased from 1.4% to 2.55%.
他们吃惊的是，他们发现经济扩张时期的经济增长在最近时期已经下降——从1820年和1870年的3.88%到自1950年3.06%——即使这两个时期中这些年份平均经济增长从1.4%上升到2.55%.

Instead, shorter and shallower slumps led to rising long-term growth.
相反，时间更短，程度更浅的经济衰退导致了长期的经济增长。

Output fell in a third of years between 1820 and 1870 but in only 12% of those since 1950.
收入在1820年和1870年中三分之一的年份下降，但是自从1950年仅在12%的年份中下降。

The rate of decline per recession year has fallen too, from 3% to 1.2%.
每个经济衰退年份下降的比率也从3%降低到了1.2%.

So why have these “growth reversals” decreased in length and depth?
那么，为什么这些“增长逆转”在长度和深度方面下降了呢？

In another paper Messrs Broadberry and Wallis find that conventional explanations—such as demographic change or a sectoral shift from volatile agriculture to the more stable services sector—do not fully explain the shift.
在另一篇 Messrs Broadberry 和 Wallis发现，传统的经济扩张——如从不稳定的农业到更加稳定的服务部门中的人口变动或部门转变——并不能完全解释这一转变。

More important is the rise of the rule of law, enabling disputes to be settled by impartial courts.
更为重要的是法律地位的上升，保证了纠纷由公正的法庭解决。

Before the modern era, elites would fight between themselves for the spoils of growth and send the economy back to square one through wars, corruption and the like.
在现代时期以前，精英会为经济增长的战利品相互争夺，并通过战争，腐败和类似这样的方式恢复经济以占取一部分利益。

Respect for courts to resolve disputes prevents this from happening.
尊重法庭去解决争端阻止了这种事的发生。

With populist politicians challenging the authority of judges once again across the world, that is food for thought.
随着民粹主义政治家再次在全世界挑战法官的权威，这值得人们深思。