经济学人下载:欧非贸易 政治风向的转变难预测(1)

Finance and Economics
财经

Afirca-EU Trade: Blown off course
欧非贸易：偏离主旨

Another trade deal adrift.
另一项贸易协定又难以尘埃落定。

The winds that waft along the Swahili coast change direction with the seasons, a boon to traders in times past.
斯瓦希里海岸那随着季节改变的风向是过去商人的福音。

Shifts in the political winds are harder to predict.
而政治风向的转变更难预测。

Last July a proposed trade deal between five countries of the East African Community (EAC) and the EU was thrown into disarray when Tanzania backed out at the last minute.
去年七月，东非共同体（EAC）和欧盟五个国家之间的一项拟议中的贸易协议因为坦桑尼亚最后一刻的退出而陷入混乱。

An EAC summit, scheduled for months ago, was meant to find a way forward.
旨在找到一条前进的道路，几个月前召开了EAC峰会。

Held at last on May 20th in Dar es Salaam, after many postponements, only two presidents showed up.
去年5月20日在达累斯萨拉姆举办，经过多次延期，只有两位总统出席。

The deal is in the doldrums.
协议停滞不前。

The pact is one of seven “Economic Partnership Agreements” (EPAs) the EU wants to sign with regional groups in Africa, the Caribbean and the Pacific.
该协议是七个“经济伙伴关系协定”(EPAs)中欧盟希望与非洲区域集团，加勒比海和太平洋地区共同签署的一个。

The first was agreed with the Caribbean in 2008; southern Africa followed suit last year.
加勒比海在2008年最先同意；非洲南部跟着在去年进入。

But progress in west Africa has also stalled, with Nigeria raising objections.
但因为尼日利亚提出反对，西非的发展也停滞不前。

The EPAs were promoted as a new breed of trade deal, and were supposed to bring development and regional co-operation.
EPAs曾被宣传为一个新的贸易方式，并带来发展和区域合作。

So far they have brought neither.
到目前为止这些都没实现。

Negotiations on EPAs began in 2002.
2002开始了关于经济伙伴关系协议(EPA)的谈判。

Under previous conventions, the EU gave favourable market access to African, Caribbean and Pacific countries, most of them former colonies.
根据以往的惯例，欧盟给予非洲、加勒比和太平洋国家有利的市场准入，这些国家大多是他们的前殖民地。

That fell foul of World Trade Organisation rules.
这违反了世界贸易组织规则。

Hence the idea of EPAs: reciprocal deals, requiring both parties to open their markets.
因此EPAS的理念：互惠协议，要求双方开放市场。

Two obstacles have to be surmounted.
这样必须克服两个障碍。

First, EPAs overlap with existing trade arrangements.
首先，EPAs与现有的贸易协定重叠。

The poorest countries, like Tanzania, already enjoy duty-free and quota- free access to the EU under an initiative called “Everything But Arms”.
最穷的国家，像坦桑尼亚，在“一切，除了武器”的倡议下，已经享有免税和配额自由进入欧盟市场。

That could one day be withdrawn, but at present they see little to gain by opening their markets.
这一天可能会被撤销，但目前他们认为开放市场并没有什么好处。

Second, countries within the same region face different incentives.
第二，同一地区的国家面临不同的激励。

Take Kenya, richer than Tanzania and not eligible for Everything But Arms.
以肯尼亚为例，比坦桑尼亚富裕，但没有“一切，除了武器”的特权。

It ratified the EPA last year and needs others to do so for the deal to come into force.
它去年正式批准了EPA，并且需要其他国家这么做，以使协议生效。

It recalls the pain of 2014, when the EU briefly slapped tariffs on its exports, such as cut flowers, and is frustrated by Tanzanian foot-dragging.
当肯尼亚回顾它2014的痛苦：欧盟简单粗暴地增加其货物（如鲜花）的出口关税；还有坦桑尼亚那折磨人的决定延迟。