经济学人下载:欧非贸易 政治风向的转变难预测(2)

A more profound question is whether EPAs really are good for development.
一个更值得人思考的问题是是否经济伙伴关系协定（EPA）真的有助于将来更好的发展。

African manufacturers worry about European competition: nascent industries are “prone to being overrun” by imports, warns Segun Ajayi-Kadir of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, which lobbies against the west African deal.
尼日利亚制造商协会反对西非贸易，其成员S.A.K警告称，非洲产商对于欧洲竞争局势忧心忡忡：进口新兴产业易于"泛滥成灾"。

EU officials point out that slashing tariffs will help manufacturing by making imported machinery cheaper.
另一方面，欧盟官员指出削减关税将有助于降低进口机械的价格。

African markets would open gradually, and some sectors are excluded.
除去部分产业，非洲市场将会逐渐开放。

Details vary, but EPAs typically liberalise about 80% of imports over 20 years.
每个地方的细节情况可能有所不同，但是经济伙伴关系协定（EPA）总体而言已经放宽约80%的进口产品超过20年了。

Many of those goods already enter duty-free.
这其中的很多进口产品已经享受免税待遇。

The EPAs would make it harder (though not impossible) for countries to use certain kinds of industrial policy, such as export taxes.
经济伙伴关系协定将使国家更难（尽管不是不可能）利用某种产业政策，比如出口税。

The EU does not think such policies do much good anyway.
反正欧盟也不认为这样的政策有什么好处。

But some governments do, and do not want their hands tied.
但是一些政府有这个需求，因为他们不希望自己手头紧张。

They fear that promised safeguards, such as an “infant industry” clause, to protect some domestic businesses, would be hard to invoke.
他们害怕已经承诺的保障措施，例如为了保障国内企业的“婴儿保障条款”，将很难调用。

They will also lose tariff revenues, an important source of income in countries where other taxes are tricky to raise.
他们还将失去关税收入，这是一个在其他税种难以提高的国家的一个重要的税种来源。

It all adds up to a “form of colonialism”, fumes John Magufuli, Tanzania's interventionist president.
这一切堆砌了“殖民主义的形式”，因此惹怒了坦桑尼亚的干涉主义总统约翰·马库夫里。

Economic evidence is mixed.
经济证据是混乱的。

Although models typically find trade gains on both sides, it is European exporters that would be the biggest winners.
虽然贸易的政策通常找到双方的贸易的共赢，但此次则是欧洲出口商将是最大的赢家。

Within Africa, gains would mostly accrue to better-off countries in sectors such as sugar, meat and dairy (rather than to manufacturing industry).
在非洲，利益主要归于发展更好的国家的产业例如食糖、肉类和乳制品，而不是制造业。

Their extra sales to the EU would come partly at the expense of trade with African partners, says David Luke of the UN Economic Commission for Africa.
联合国非洲经济委员会的David Luke说，欧盟的额外销售的部分，是以与非洲伙伴达成贸易为代价的。

Ultimately “it's about politics”, argues San Bilal of the European Centre for Development Policy Management, a think-tank.
最终，“这关于政治”，欧洲发展政策管理中心（智囊团其中一员的）圣比拉尔说道。

The EPAs are mired in regional rivalries, he notes, against a backdrop of global trade uncertainty after the Brexit vote and Donald Trump's election.
他指出，EPAs（经济伙伴关系协定）陷入区域性争斗，是在与英国退欧投票和唐纳德·特朗普获选所产生的全球贸易不确定性的大背景进行对抗。

The next step for the east African deal is a quixotic mission to Brussels with Yoweri Museveni, the Ugandan president, at the helm. Don't expect the trade winds to start blowing.
对于布鲁塞尔而言，下一步在东非的交易是个不切实际的任务，在乌干达总统约韦里·穆塞韦尼掌舵的情况下就不要指望“贸易风”能开始。