经济学人下载:六大经济学原理:通胀与失业的关系(2)

Mr Phelps began writing groundbreaking models of the labour market in 1966.
1966年，菲尔普斯开始构建开创性的劳动力市场模型。

A year later, Friedman gave what became the canonical criticism of the old way of thinking in an address to the American Economics Association.
一年后，弗里德曼在对美国经济学会的一篇演讲中提出了成为老式思维之正典批判(canonical criticism)的东西。

In it, he argued that, far from there being a menu of options for policymakers to pick from, one rate of unemployment—a natural rate—would eventually prevail.
他在这篇演讲中指出，与其说有一份可供决策者挑选的选项菜单，倒不如说一种失业比率——自然的比率——最终会胜出。

Suppose, Friedman reasoned, that a central bank prints money in an attempt to push unemployment lower than the natural rate.
弗里德曼分析道，假设，央行在一次将失业推得比自然比率还要低的尝试中印制货币。

A larger money supply would lead to more spending.
增大的货币供应会导致更多的开支。

Firms would respond to increased demand for their products by expanding production and raising prices, say by 5%.
企业会通过增产和提价——比如说5%——的方式来应对对其产品的扩大了的需求。

This inflation would catch workers by surprise.
这种通胀会让工人措手不及。

Their wages would be worth less than they bargained for when they had negotiated their contracts.
他们的工资会比当初谈合同时所争取的有所贬值。

Labour would, for a while, be artificially cheap, encouraging hiring.
一时间，劳动力会人为地便宜，鼓励了雇佣行为。

Unemployment would fall below the natural rate.
失业率会跌到自然比率之下。

The central bank would achieve its goal.
央行也会达到其目的。

The next time pay was negotiated, however, workers would demand a 5% raise to restore their standard of living.
然而，下一次工资接受谈判时，工人会要求加薪5%以恢复其生活标准。

Neither firm nor worker has gained or lost negotiating power since the last time real wages were set, so the natural rate of unemployment would reassert itself as firms shed staff to pay for the raise.
由于自上一次实际工资被确定下来以来，企业和工人都没有增加或失去谈判的筹码。所以，失业的自然比率会随着企业裁员以应付加薪而再度自我凸显。

To get unemployment back down again, the central bank could embark on another round of easing.
为了让失业率再次回落，央行可能开启新一轮宽松。

But workers can be fooled only for so long.
但是，工人只能被愚弄这么长时间了。

They would come to expect 5% inflation, and would insist on commensurately higher wages in advance, rather than playing catch-up with the central bank.
他们会预期5%的通胀，并且还会坚持事先等量加薪，而不是跟在央行后面亦步亦趋。

Without an inflation surprise, there would be no period of unexpectedly cheap labour.
没有了通胀惊奇，也就不会再有意料之外的低廉劳动力时期了。

So unemployment would not fall.
于是，失业率也不会下降了。