经济学人下载:奥夫拉多尔当选墨西哥总统是福是祸?(3)

What sort of change remainsto be seen.
奥夫拉多尔将带来何种变革仍有待观察。

The biography that beguiles his supporters is replete with danger signals.
其履历令支持者着迷，但却充满危险的信号。

Time and again he has shown contempt for the law.
他屡次显示出对法律的轻蔑。

He has urged people not to pay their electricity bills.
还敦促民众不要支付他们的电费。

After he lost in 2006 his supporters proclaimed him the "legitimate president"
2006年竞选失败之后，他的支持者声称他才是“合法总统”，

and blocked Mexico City's main street for weeks.
并封堵了墨西哥城主要街道长达数周。

He has said that the courts should be an instrument of "popular sentiment".
他曾表示法庭应该是“民意”的工具。

His supporters say he has matured,
支持者声称奥夫拉多尔已经成熟，

and that his record as Mexico City's well-liked mayor from 2000 to 2005 shows that he was always pragmatic.
并且他在2000年至2005年担任墨西哥城市长期间深受爱戴，这样的记录说明他一直是个实效派。

He has made his peace with NAFTA and no longer talks of reversing the energy reform.
他已与北美自由贸易协定（NAFTA）讲和，亦不再谈论要推翻能源改革。

He promises to run a disciplined budget, to respect the independence of the central bank and not to raise taxes.
他还承诺要严格实行预算方案、尊重央行的独立性，以及不会提高税收。

Some of his ideas, like a nationwide apprenticeship programme, make sense.
他的某些想法，例如全国范围实行学徒制，有其合理性在。

But he seems to have little idea how a modern economy or democracy works.
但奥夫拉多尔似乎对现代经济或民主是如何运行甚无概念。

He disparages independent institutions, such as the supreme court.
他蔑视最高法院之类的独立机构。

He talks of making Mexico self-sufficient in food and of building oil refineries, which are unlikely to make business sense.
他谈论墨西哥粮食自给和建炼油厂，但这些措施不具经济合理性。

His ideas are simplistic.
他的想法过分简单化。

He wants to halve the salaries of senior officials, including the president,
他想要把包括总统在内的高级官员薪水减半，

and to subject himself to a recall referendum every two years.
自己接受每两年一次的罢免公投。

Though personally clean, he has formed alliances with politicians who are anything but.
尽管他个人是清廉的，但与之结盟的政客却完全不是。

He denounces Mr Pena's education reform, which offers poor children a chance of a brighter future.
他公开批评皮亚诺的教育改革，而改革其实为贫困儿童提供了迈向更光明前途的机会。

Yes, Mr López Obrador has reinvented himself, but as a bundle of contradictions.
是的，洛佩斯·奥布拉多尔的确已经改头换面了，但却成为了一堆矛盾的集合体。

That makes his presidency a risky experiment.
上述因素使得奥夫拉多尔当选总统将成为一个高风险的实验。

The financial markets might tame a López Obrador government.
金融市场或会抑制洛佩斯·奥夫拉多尔领导的政府.

But a congressional majority for his party might equally encourage radicalism.
但其党派在议会占多数同样可鼓动激进主义。

It might go well if, say, he curbs corruption or stands up to America over trade.
事情也许能进展顺利，如果他能控制住贪腐，或是在贸易问题上顶住美国的压力。

More likely, progress will remain elusive.
但更可能，前行举步维艰。

Mexico cannot stop graft without the institutions Mr López Obrador scorns.
墨西哥如果没有洛佩斯·奥夫拉多尔嗤之以鼻的各项机构，将无法阻止贪污腐败行为。

And with protectionists at the helm in its two biggest member-states, NAFTA could well collapse.
而随着北美自由贸易协定两个最大成员国都由贸易保护主义者掌权，北美自由贸易协定也很有可能崩溃。

That would further poison relations with the United States,
这将进一步恶化墨西哥与美国的关系，

possibly imperilling co-operation overdrugs and immigration.
有可能危及双方在打击毒品犯罪和非法移民方面的合作。

We worry about Mr López Obrador's presidency,
我们对洛佩斯·奥夫拉多尔的总统任期感到担忧，

but wish him luck. If he fails, worse may follow.
但也祝他好运。如果他竞选失败，更糟糕的事情或会接踵而至。