经济学人下载:默克尔时代走向落幕 德国政坛波谲云诡(1)

Leaders
社论

Germany
德国

Angela's exit
安格拉退出

The Merkel era has come to an end
默克尔时代已到尽头

She is still Germany's chancellor. But, after 13 sober and admirable years at the top, Angela Merkel's authority has melted away.
默克尔虽然如今仍是德国总理，但经过了13年冷静而又令人钦佩的总理生涯，其威信正在下降。

On October 29th, following an astonishing drubbing handed out to her Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in the prosperous state of Hesse, she announced that she will step down as leader of the party in December.
10月29日，在繁荣的黑森州，德国基督教民主联盟（以下简称“基民盟”）于地区议会选举遭遇惊人惨败后，默克尔宣布将不会在今年12月初（举行的党内换届选举上）寻求连任党主席。

In theory, she could remain as chancellor until 2021.
理论上，她可保留总理职位至2021年。

But, as she herself remarked about her predecessor, Gerhard Schroder, who tried to buy himself time with a similar manoeuvre back in 2004, the two jobs belong together.
但正如默克尔评论施罗德时所言：这两个职位应归一人。2004年，上任总理格哈德·施罗德曾试图用同样的策略为自己争取些时间。

Her position now is even worse than his was then.
默克尔的处境甚至比施罗德当时更糟。

Mrs Merkel's writ does not run in her own party, which recently ousted a close ally from his position as parliamentary leader in the Bundestag.
默克尔的政令在自己的政党中不起作用，最近，基民盟将一位亲密盟友从联邦议院议长的位置上赶下。

Worse, her coalition with the Social Democrats(SPD), who were also walloped in Hesse, is at risk of collapse.
雪上加霜，默克尔与社会民主党的联合也在黑森州遭受重创，现在正处于分崩离析的危险之中。

Even if the SPD do not walk out in the coming days, the two parties now so thoroughly dislike each other that she will struggle to govern.
即使社民党在未来的日子里不退出，两党现在已经非常不喜欢对方，默克尔将很难治理国家。

Mr Schroder lasted only 15 months after leaving his party job before being forced to call an early election, which he lost. Mrs Merkel should not expect to last any longer.
上任总理施罗德在辞去党内职务后仅坚持了15个月，就被迫提前举行大选，但最终以失败告终。默克尔女士不应该这种境况持续太久。

The timing could hardly be worse.
时机再糟糕不过了。

The EU is being buffeted by Brexit and the threat of an Italian-inspired euro crisis.
欧盟正受到英国脱欧和意大利引发的欧元危机威胁的打击。

President Donald Trump is forcing Europe to rethink its security.
美国总统唐纳德·特朗普正迫使欧洲重新考虑安全问题。

When leadership is required, neither the EU nor the world should welcome a prolonged period of Teutonic paralysis.
当需要领导时，无论是欧盟还是世界都不应希望日耳曼人长期陷于瘫痪。

Quite possibly, the pace will be forced by the SPD's departure from the coalition.
社民党退出联盟政府很有可能将迫使其加快步伐。

Mrs Merkel also said this week that she will not fight another election and she is unlikely to stay on as head of a new coalition or a minority government.
默克尔本周还表示，她不会再参加另一场选举，她不太可能继续担任新联合政府或少数派政府的领导人。

As the lamest of ducks, she will struggle to achieve anything.
好似跛足鸭子，默克尔举步维艰。