经济学人下载:默克尔时代走向落幕 德国政坛波谲云诡(2)

Even if the “grand coalition” staggers on, Mrs Merkel should not hang around for long.
即使“大联盟政府”摇摇欲坠，默克尔也不应该浪费太多时间。

The CDU, when it gathers in December at the congress that will now choose a new party leader, will be aware that it is also choosing the probable next chancellor, which is why three powerful candidates jumped into the frame on the day she made her announcement.
基民盟将于12月在国会召开会议，届时将选出很有可能成为新总理的政党领袖。这就是为什么在她宣布不再参选的当天，就有三位实力强大的候选人加入了竞选阵营。

Others are likely to follow. The winner will instantly upstage the incumbent.
其他人可能会效仿。获胜者将会立即抢了默克尔的风头。

As well as being speedy, the process needs to be transparent.
这个过程不但要快速，而且要透明。

On migration policy, euro-zone reforms and defence, the CDU has large disagreements that need to be hammered out.
在移民政策、欧元区改革和国防方面，基民盟有很多分歧需要解决。

The choice of a successor to Mrs Merkel is the time to do it.
选择默克尔继任者的时机已经成熟。

There should thus be a genuine debate about principles and, above all, no attempt by Mrs Merkel to push forward the successor who would be the most likely to prop her up.
因此，应该就原则展开一场真正的辩论，默克尔尤其不应试图推动最有可能支持她的继任者上台。

So far she has not entirely lived up to that ideal.
到目前为止，默克尔并没有实现那个理想。

It is widely understood that she wants Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer to take over (she nominated “AKK” to the post of party general secretary in February with just that in mind, many believe).
现在传的最多的说法是安娜格莱特·克朗普·卡伦鲍尔将会接替默克尔的职位（许多人认为正是出于这个想法，默克尔在2月份提名卡伦鲍尔担任基民盟秘书长）。

Ms Kramp-Karrenbauer, as far as one can tell, shares most of Mrs Merkel's centrist instincts.
据我所知，克朗普·卡伦鲍尔和默克尔中间派本能大部分相似。

The other two declared contenders, Jens Spahn and Friedrich Merz, are considerably further to the right.
另外两名参选人，延斯·史潘和弗雷德里希·梅尔茨则明显偏右。

Either of them might help the CDU stem the haemorrhage of votes to the Alternative for Germany (AfD), but would alienate the Social Democrats, assuming they remain in the coalition that long.
这两位都有可能会帮助基民盟阻止选票流向德国新选择党，但会疏远社会民主党，前提是他们会在联盟政府存在那么长时间。

Once Mrs Merkel steps down as chancellor too, Germany ought quickly to hold another election.
一旦默克尔也辞去总理职位，德国应尽快举行新的选举。

Leaders without a mandate from voters seldom command much respect.
没有选民授权的领导人很难受到尊重。

And the electoral situation has changed radically since the last vote, in September 2017.
自2017年9月上次投票以来，选举形势发生了根本性的变化。

The coalition parties' support has collapsed, thanks to the unpopularity of their reheated deal;
由于重新升温的协议不受欢迎，联盟政党的支持已经崩溃；

that of the Greens and the AfD has surged.
绿党和新选择党支持率大幅上升。

Germany's government needs to reflect that fact if it wants to get anything done.
如果德国政府想要有所作为，那么就需要反应这一事实。