经济学人下载:欧元区面临经济考验(2)

Those actions will buy time, but no more than that. There are still limits on how much the ECB can help the south and extra bond purchases are likely to end before southern economies recover. The bank may feel it lacks the mandate to extend its scheme. A legal challenge in Germany is an ever-present threat. And, aware that they are pushing their luck, southern countries may opt for smaller stimulus packages than they really need. That could still mean they face a doom loop as a shrinking economy makes it harder to service existing debts.
这些行动将赢得时间，但仅此而已。欧洲央行能在多大程度上帮助南欧国家仍有限制，在南欧经济体复苏之前，额外的债券购买可能会结束。欧洲央行可能会觉得自己缺乏扩大该计划的授权。在德国，法律上的挑战是一直存在的威胁。而且，意识到他们是在碰运气，南部国家可能会选择比真正需要的更小的刺激方案。这可能仍然意味着，随着经济萎缩，偿还现有债务变得更加困难，南部国家将面临厄运循环。

Politically the euro faces a dilemma. In the south millions more might conclude that membership of the single currency brings no benefits, fuelling support for Eurosceptic parties such as Italy’s Northern League and the National Rally of Marine Le Pen in France. In the north bail-outs would bolster the likes of the hard-right Alternative for Germany.
从政治上讲，欧元面临着两难境地。在南部，还有数百万人可能会得出结论，认为加入单一货币不会带来任何好处，从而助长了对欧洲怀疑论政党的支持，比如意大利的北方联盟和法国的马琳•勒庞全国集会。在北方，紧急援助将支持极右翼的德国新选项党。

What to do? As The Economist went to press euro-area finance ministers were still struggling to agree on measures, including common funding for unemployment insurance and easier access to credit lines from a common bail-out fund. But the resources available are puny. A proposal, backed by nine member states, for “coronabonds”, or jointly issued debt, is likely to founder. This would have let the south take advantage of the north’s cheap borrowing costs.
该做什么？在本期《经济学人》付印之际，欧元区各国财长仍在努力就措施达成一致，包括为失业保险提供共同资金，以及从共同纾困基金中更容易获得信贷额度。但是可用的资源很少。一项由9个成员国支持的“coronabond”(联合发行债券)提案可能会失败。这将使韩国得以利用朝鲜低廉的借贷成本。

Northerners have long resisted mutualisation for fear of underwriting laxity in the south. But without it Italy and Spain will face either a savage crisis now or a lengthy debt crisis in the future. With lockdowns in place from Saxony to Sicily, debt issued today is a result not of bad behaviour but of the pandemic. Mutualisation should be a compromise, signalling that north and south have to live together in their common interest. Even some past opponents of Eurobonds, such as Klaas Knot, head of the Dutch central bank, now see a case for them. Northern leaders must follow. For two decades they have shied away from the fact that the currency union cannot succeed unless its members share more risk. If they do not face up to that today, the euro, and perhaps the European Union itself, will not survive.
长期以来，北方人一直拒绝共同化，因为他们担心南方的保险制度过于宽松。但如果不这样做，意大利和西班牙将面临一场严重的危机，或者未来漫长的债务危机。随着从萨克森到西西里岛等地的禁闭，今天发行的债券不是不良行为的结果，而是受疫情影响的结果。共同化应该是一种妥协，表明北方和南方必须为了共同利益而生活在一起。甚至一些过去反对欧元债券的人，如荷兰央行行长克拉斯•诺特，现在也看到了支持欧元债券的理由。北方领导人必须效仿。二十年来，他们一直回避这样一个事实：除非成员国分担更多风险，否则货币联盟就无法成功。如果他们今天不正视这一点，欧元(或许还有欧盟本身)将不复存在。