经济学人下载:核能,烟雾消散之后

France, in particular, seems certain to remain resolutely pro-nuclear. The French nuclear industry may even see Fukushima as an opportunity. The EPR is touted as being especially safe: if concerns about safety could be turned into a regulatory case for building only EPRs in Europe, so much the better. The British, Czechs and Finns, who are all also looking at a design by America’s Westinghouse (the Finns are examining a South Korean one, too), would not be keen to be captive customers, but they may choose EPRs anyway.

尤其是法国，看似肯定将继续坚定地支持核能。法国核能产业可能甚至将福岛事故视为一次机遇。欧洲压水堆被宣称为格外安全：如果对安全的关切能转化为欧洲只能建造欧洲压水堆的监管问题，那就更好了。英国人、捷克人和芬兰人也都在关注美国西屋公司的一款设计（芬兰人还在审视韩国的一款反应堆），他们不会乐于使自己的选择局限于法国，不过他们或许仍会选择欧洲压水堆。

The most labile European country on matters nuclear has, not surprisingly, been Germany, where great engineering and anti-nuclear sentiment have long coexisted uneasily. In 2002 the then centre-left government said it would phase out nuclear power by 2022. Last year the current, centre-right lot extended the lives of seven ageing reactors by eight years. In response to Fukushima it shut them again, at first for three months.

不出所料，在核问题上立场最不稳定的欧洲国家一直是德国，该国强大的工程技术与反核情绪在不安状态中长期共存。2002年，当时执政的中左翼政府宣称将于2022年前逐步淘汰核能；而在去年，目前执政的中右翼人士则将7座日渐老化的反应堆的寿命延长了8年。作为对福岛核事故的回应，德国政府再度关闭了这些反应堆，关停期最初定为3个月。

Getting gas利用天然气

Some or all of those plants may not reopen. If none did, then according to Stefan W??chter of Point Carbon, a research firm, German carbon-dioxide emissions would increase by 435m tonnes in the decade to 2020. Analysis by Deutsche Bank suggests that at least 23 gigawatts of new gas-fired capacity would need to be built by the same year. Gas-fired plants are the natural short-term response in part because Germany’s grid cannot take much more in terms of renewables (of which the country already has a lot) both because of their peaks and troughs and because some would need to be offshore. That said, demand for renewables elsewhere might increase, as Germany’s extra use of fossil fuels pushed up the price of carbon in Europe’s emissions-trading scheme.

这些核电站中的部分或者全部可能不会再重新启用。如果它们全部关闭的话，那么根据供职于点碳(Point Carbon) 研究公司的斯蒂凡??瓦赫特(Stefan W??chter)的说法，德国的二氧化碳排放量将在2020年前的10年间增长4.35亿吨。德意志银行的分析表明，德国需在2020年前至少新增230亿瓦燃气发电量。部分是由于德国电网无法再承载多少可再生能源（该国已在大量利用可再生能源），因此燃气发电厂成了一种自然而然的短期应对措施；之所以无法承载，既是因为可再生能源的峰谷波动，又是因为部分项目需要离岸建设。话虽如此，但由于德国对化石燃料的额外使用推高了欧洲排放交易体系的碳价格，因此其他地区对可再生能源的需求有可能增加。

In its likely switch to gas, Germany reflects the probable post-Fukushima world. In any country where nuclear provides less electricity than had been expected, in the near term gas is favourite to make up the shortfall. Societe Generale’s analysis suggests that a full withdrawal from nuclear by OECD countries would increase demand for gas by more than 400 billion cubic metres a year by 2045.

在可能转而使用天然气一事上，德国反映出了后福岛世界的可能景象。在任何核发电量少于此前预期的国家，近期内弥补短缺的最佳选择便是天然气。兴业银行分析报告提出：若经合组织国家完全放弃核能，到2045年时，天然气的年需求量将会增加4000亿立方米以上。

In America and Canada the nuclear slack could be taken up by domestically produced gas, Societe Generale reckons, reflecting the sheer scale of the shale-gas revolution there. The rest of the world would either buy liquefied natural gas (LNG) or get gas in pipelines, a prospect that relations with Russia have made irksome to some. Energy-security concerns partly explained why Germany decided to delay its phasing out of nuclear plants. Now it and other European countries may buy a lot more Russian gas. To Russia one of the attractions of continuing with nuclear power is that it frees gas for export.

兴业银行估计，美国和加拿大的核发电量下降可以通过国产天然气弥补，这反映出美加两国页岩气革命的真实规模。世界其他地区则得在购买液化天然气与通过管道进口天然气之间做出选择，而与俄罗斯的关系则已使后一种前景令某些国家感到苦恼。对于能源安全的关切可以部分解释德国为何决定推迟对核电站的逐步淘汰。如今，德国和其他欧洲国家或许会购买远多于此前的俄罗斯天然气。对于俄罗斯而言，继续利用核能的吸引力之一则在于，它使得天然气可被用于出口。