经济学人下载:核能,烟雾消散之后

Damn Vermont Yankee该死的佛蒙特扬基核电站

America, which leads the world in installed nuclear power, may lead the world in turning away from the technology, too. In 2007 Congress agreed to provide loan guarantees for nuclear power; some 28 applications for new stations have since been filed. Barack Obama pledged in his state-of-the-union address in January 2010 to build a “new generation of safe, clean nuclear power plants”. Even before Fukushima, though, this was looking increasingly unlikely. The recession hit demand. Ever-more-available shale gas brought a cheap and reliable alternative route to domestically fuelled electricity. And the lack of climate legislation meant there was no price on carbon, which would have favoured nuclear power.

在核能装机方面居世界之首的美国，或许也将带头远离这项技术。2007年，美国国会同意为核电提供贷款担保，此后人们已提交了大约28份新核电站的建设申请。贝拉克??奥巴马在其2010年1月的国情咨文讲话中许诺建设“新一代安全、清洁的核电站”。不过，这种前景的可能性即便是在福岛核事故发生之前，看起来就已日渐渺茫。经济衰退打击了能源需求。愈加容易获取的页岩气为国产燃料发电提供了一条廉价又可靠的可选路径。而缺乏环境立法则意味着碳排放成本为零，而这种成本原本将有利于核能。

There are just two new American reactors under construction, neither with full regulatory approval (a third, approved under an earlier system and then put on ice, is also under way). Few in the industry expect many more. Applications for around 20 plants to extend their licences are before the government and requests for 15 more are expected shortly. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission has already granted them to 64 plants, most recently on March 21st to Vermont Yankee, which is of the same design and vintage as the Fukushima reactors. This similarity has not been lost on the Vermonters trying with renewed vigour to shut it down. Expect more local opposition in years to come.

目前美国正在建设的新反应堆仅有两座，且两者都未完全获得监管部门的批准（第三座新反应堆曾在较早的体系下获得批准，但其后计划被拖延，如今也在建设之中）。核能产业中很少有谁还指望着能新增许多反应堆。关于为大约20座反应堆延长许可有效期的申请已被递交政府，另外15座的申请预计很快也会被提出。核能管理委员会已经为64座核电站发放了延期许可，其中最新一张发放于3月21日，获得延期的是与福岛反应堆设计和年龄相同的佛蒙特扬基核电站。这种相似性并没有被重振旗鼓、试图关闭这座核电站的佛蒙特人所忽略。预计在未来几年中，还将会出现更多的地方反对。

In Japan, where nuclear power provides 30% of the country’s electricity, the debate may be more complex than outsiders imagine. Japan’s nuclear anguish stems more from the way the industry is run than from its technological essence. The Japanese are angry at bureaucrats and TEPCO, the company that owns Fukushima Dai-ichi, for a long record of shoddy safety standards and cover-ups. “Amakudari kills,” tweeted a well-known reformer recently, referring to the “descent from heaven” of senior bureaucrats to cushy jobs in industries they used to regulate. So although Japan may phase out a lot of older reactors, the public may tolerate nuclear power in the form of new, better plants with management it trusts.

在核能提供了该国30%电力的日本，这场争议或许会比外界所想象的更为复杂。日本核能之痛更多源自核能产业的运营模式，而非其技术本质。日本国民因为虚假的安全标准和掩饰问题的长期历史而对官僚和福岛第一核电站的所有者——东京电力公司感到愤怒。一位知名改革者近期在推特上写道：“官员空降害死人”。此处“官员空降”(amakudari)指高层官僚“从天而降”，在其曾经监管过的产业中谋得轻松的差事。因此，尽管日本可能会逐步淘汰一大批年代较久的反应堆，但公众或许能够容忍以新的、更好的、管理可以信赖的核电站形式产生的核能。

In the European Union Austria, Denmark, Greece, Ireland and Portugal are strongly anti-nuclear, but the EU as a whole is unlikely to go their way. Its response to Fukushima has been to call for “stress tests” of its members’ reactors. Britain, the Czech Republic and Finland hope soon to build some more. Finland and France, which produces more of its electricity in nuclear plants than any other big country, each have under construction a plant of the European Pressurised Reactor (EPR) design developed by AREVA, a French industrial group. Plans may be delayed or diminished, but a complete halt to building is unlikely.

而在欧盟，奥地利、丹麦、希腊、爱尔兰以及葡萄牙抱有强烈的反核态度，不过欧盟整体上不太可能遵循它们的这一立场。对于福岛核事故，欧盟所作反应是号召对其成员国的反应堆进行“压力测试”。英国、捷克以及芬兰有望很快建设更多的反应堆。法国通过核电站发电的比例高于其他任何大国，该国与芬兰各自都在建设一座由法国工业集团阿海珐公司(AREVA)开发的欧洲压水堆(EPR)型核电站。核开发计划或许会被推迟或缩减，但完全停止建造的可能性不大。