经济学人下载:核能,烟雾消散之后

Elsewhere, too, the industry was reviving. Figures from the World Nuclear Association, a trade body, have shown more capacity planned and proposed than on the ground. Now much of this expansion looks likely to be curtailed. Even the replacement of reactors may be in question.

核能产业在其他地区也在重现生机。来自行业组织——世界核协会（World Nuclear Association）的数据已经表明，计划或提议开发的核能大于现有产能。如今看来，这种产能扩张中可能将有许多会被削减，甚至连反应堆的替换或许都得打上问号。

When last year a volcano closed the skies over Europe and a blown-out oil-rig turned the Gulf of Mexico black, there was no widespread enthusiasm for giving up oil or air travel. But nuclear power is much less fundamental to the workings of the world than petrol or aeroplanes. Nuclear reactors generate only 14% of the world’s electricity, and with a median age of about 27 years (see chart) and a typical design life of 40 a lot are nearing retirement. Although the world is eager to fly and thirsts for oil, it has had little appetite for new nuclear power for the past quarter of a century.

当去年一座火山令欧洲空域关闭，一座失控爆炸的石油钻井平台将墨西哥湾染成黑色时，人们并未对放弃石油或航空旅行产生过广泛的热情。不过，与石油或飞机相比，核能对世界运行的基础性作用要弱得多。核反应堆发电量仅为全球总发电量的14%，而其年龄中位数为27年，设计寿命一般为40年，许多反应堆正临近退役。尽管世界急欲飞行而又渴求石油，但在过去的25年中，它对新增核能却并无多大胃口。

This is not just the direct result of Chernobyl. New nuclear plants cost a great deal of money. After Fukushima they are likely to cost even more, thanks to extra uncertainty in licensing and approval if nothing else. Another problem now made manifest is that if operator error or shoddy construction causes a reactor of the same design as yours halfway round the world to go wrong, yours may be shut down too. This is not a merely theoretical possibility. Seven German nuclear reactors which were officially safe until mid-March have been shut down. It is widely thought that at least some will not open again.

这并不只是切尔诺贝利事故的直接后果。新核电站的成本非常巨大，在福岛核事故之后，由于至少会在授予许可和批准两方面出现额外的不确定性，因此新核电站的成本或许还会上升。另一个如今显而易见的问题则是：如果一座与你的设备相隔万里、但设计相同的反应堆，因操作人员错误操作或豆腐渣工程而发生事故的话，那么你所拥有的反应堆可能也将被关闭。这种情况并非只在理论上存在可能。德国有7座在3月中旬之前被官方认为安全的核反应堆已被关闭。人们普遍认为，其中至少有几座再也不会重新运行。

And if that happens, Germany will not suffer much. While the nuclear industry has stalled since Chernobyl, natural gas and renewables have come on impressively. German electricity prices would probably go up, depending to some extent on the price of gas and carbon, because although new nuclear plants are expensive, old, depreciated ones make cheap electricity. But it would not be the end of the world.

而如果这种情况成真，德国也不会深受其害。当核能产业自切尔诺贝利事故以来便已陷入停滞之时，天然气和可再生能源却以惊人的速度发展。德国电价或许将会上升，在一定程度上这取决于天然气和碳燃料的价格，这是因为尽管新核电站造价高昂，但折旧的老核电站却在生产着廉价的电能。不过，世界也不会因此而陷入穷途末路。

The 14% solution14%解决方案

Nuclear power thus looks dangerous, unpopular, expensive and risky. It is replaceable with relative ease and could be forgone with no huge structural shifts in the way the world works. So what would the world be like without it?

有鉴于此，核能看起来既危险而不受欢迎，又昂贵且存在风险。人们可以相对轻松地用其他能源取而代之，而放弃核能又不会对世界的运行模式带来巨大的结构性变化。那么，没有核能的世界又将是怎样一番模样呢？

The most obvious answer is: a bit warmer. In 2009 the world’s electricity generators emitted about 9 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide, out of an industrial total of 30 billion tonnes and a grand total, including deforestation and the effects of other gases, equivalent to some 50 billion. Without nuclear power and with other fuels filling in its share pro rata, emissions from generation would have been about 11 billion tonnes. The difference is roughly equal to the total annual emissions of Germany and Japan combined.

最明显的答案便是：世界将变得更温暖一些。2009年，全球发电设备共排放二氧化碳90亿吨左右，工业总排放量为300亿吨，而将毁林和其他（温室）气体效应包含在内的排放总量约等于500亿吨。当核能被放弃，而其份额被其他燃料按比例填补时，发电所排放的二氧化碳将达到110亿吨左右。两者差额几乎等于德国和日本的年排放总量。