经济学人下载:违约杯具已避,跛脚政治风险犹存

This is far from a lasting solution to America’s climbing debt. Neither Republicans nor Democrats were forced to slaughter their sacred cows. Republicans kept higher taxes off the table, and Democrats did the same with the biggest entitlements: Medicaid (the federal-state health programme for the poor), Social Security (pensions) and most of Medicare, the federal health programme for the elderly. The deal also threatens to tighten fiscal policy further in 2012, when the recovery is still struggling to establish itself.

这对不断攀升的美国债务来说，远不是什么长久之计。无论是共和党还是民主党都为未被迫触及底线。共和党依旧反对将增税纳入议题，而民主党同样也不愿提及他们迄今最大的福利项目：包括医疗救助（联邦政府面向穷人的一向福利），社会保障金，社会保险（联邦政府面向老年人的健康保障项目）的大部。这项协议很可能导致2012年出现更为紧缩的财政政策，而那时美国的经济还依旧独自挣扎在恢复的边缘。

It marks, too, another deeply worrying change. The willingness of one party to use the threat of default, if not on government bonds then on other federal obligations such as pensions and pay-cheques, marked a dangerous escalation in the partisan rancour that has come to bedevil policymaking. It is not just big, controversial things like tax reform and climate change that fall victim to gridlock, but smaller, routine matters where disagreements are often slight. Since 2007 the Federal Aviation Administration has operated on no less than 20 short-term funding authorisations; the latest finally ran out on July 22nd because of a congressional dispute, forcing the layoff of thousands of workers and a halt to airport building projects (see article). Many regulatory positions remain vacant because Senate Republicans are blocking appointments to them. Free-trade agreements with Colombia, South Korea and Panama, supported by both parties, have been stalled because the Democrats want ratification linked to renewal of a worker-training programme and Republicans do not.

另外，此次事件还凸显了另一种隐忧。如果一党执意要用类似违约的手段来要挟对方，那么毫无疑问将加剧两党之间的敌意，而这又会导致政策制定过程中麻烦不断。更别说这还只是政府债券方面的问题，如果关系到联邦政府的其他义务，如养老金、现金支付等，人们将更加不胜其扰。不仅像税收、气候变化这些重大的、有争议的议题将由此陷入停摆，另外一些本来异议不是很大的鸡毛蒜皮的小事也将会被整得天翻地覆。例如，自2007年以来，联邦航空管理局本来已经发行了20多种短期基金债券，但是因为国会那边扯皮不清，结果最近的一期债券也于7月22日寿终正寝了。致使数千名工人被解雇，多个机场在建项目停工。由于共和党参议员阻挠任命，现在依然有多个监管职位空缺。而且与哥伦比亚、韩国、巴拿巴的自由贸易协定，之前已获得两党支持，却因为民主党想要把这个与一个工人培训项目挂钩而共和党坚决不干，造成这些协议现在仍然被搁置。