经济学人下载:人民币的崛起

the rise of the redback
人民币的崛起

China will have to open its financial market if it wants the yuan to rival the dollar
如果想让人民币击败美元，中国必须开放其金融市场

Jan 20th 2011 | from PRINT EDITION

IN 1965 Valery Giscard d’Estaing, then France’s finance minister, complained that America, as the issuer of the world’s reserve currency, enjoyed “an exorbitant privilege”. China’s president, Hu Jintao, does not have quite the same way with words. But on the eve of his visit to America this week he told two of the country’s newspapers that the international currency system was a “product of the past”. Something can be a product of the past without being a thing of the past. But his implication was clear: the dollar’s role reflects America’s historical clout, not its present stature.

在1965年时，瓦勒里·季斯卡·德斯坦还是法国财政部部长，当时他抱怨到作为世界储备货币发行国的美国，享有者一种“嚣张的特权”。不过中国国家主席胡锦涛用另外的说法表达了这个意思在本周出访美国前夕，他告诉两家国内的报纸说国际货币体系是“旧时代的产物”。有些东西在没有成为陈迹之前，就已经成为过去的产物。但是他的意思很清楚：美元反映的是美国在过去的影响力，但是不现在的情况。

Mr Hu is right that America’s currency punches above its economy’s diminished weight in the world. America’s share of global output (20%), trade (only 11%) and even financial assets (about 30%) is shrinking, as emerging economies flourish. But many of those economies, such as South Korea, still sell their exports for dollars; many, including China, still peg their currencies to the greenback, however loosely; and about 60% of the world’s foreign-exchange reserves remain in dollars.

胡先生是对的，美元地位与其在世界经济中不断下降的份额不相称。在世界产出中美国所占的份额（20%），在世界贸易中美国拥有的份额（11%）以及在金融资产上的美国的份额（30%）都在萎缩，而新兴市场经济体却不断繁荣。可是这其中的大部分国家，比如韩国，还在用美元结算出口商品；很多国家，包括中国，仍然将其货币与美元挂钩，只不过现在跟随步伐不那么紧了；而且，世界外汇储备中大约有60%仍然使用美元。

This allows America to borrow cheaply from the rest of the world. Its government has been able to overspend, secure in the knowledge that its IOUs will be bought by foreign central banks, which are not too fussy about price. America would show more self-discipline, many Chinese believe, if the dollar had a little bit more competition.
   
这种情况的存在使美国可以很便宜地从世界其它地方购买商品。由于知道自己发行的票据会被国外央行购买，所以美国政府能够过度花费而不对价格过分担心。很多中国人认为如果美元还能保证一点竞争力的话，它应该更自律一些。