经济学人下载:欧元危机 负债人的监狱

Finance and economics
财经商业

The euro crisis
欧元危机

Debtors' prison
负债人的监狱

The euro zone is blighted by private debt even more than by government debt
欧元区饱受私人债务的困扰，其程度甚至超过政府债务

THE European Central Bank announced this week how it will undertake a root-and-branch examination of banking assets before it takes charge of supervision in the euro area late next year.
欧洲央行在本周宣布了它们在明年年底接管监督欧元区之前如何对银行资产进行彻底的检测。

One aim of the exercise is to identify the bad debts that are fouling up euro-zone banks and preventing the flow of new credit.
演习的目的之一是要找出那些使上涨欧元区银行结垢和妨碍新的信贷流动的坏账。

This is important because parts of the single-currency area are crippled not just by public borrowing but by private debt, most of which is sitting on banking books.
这是很重要的，因为造成部分单一货币区残缺的不只是因为公共借款，更是因为私人债务，而且其中大部分是坐在银行账户。

Throughout the euro crisis, tough austerity programmes have been aimed at tackling sovereign debt.
在整个欧元区危机中，严厉的紧缩计划旨在应对主权债务。

That German-inspired focus is badly misplaced.
德国风格的焦点是严重错位的。

High private debt is more detrimental to growth than high public debt, according to recent research by the IMF.
根据国际货币基金组织最近的研究，高额私人债务比高额公共债务更不利。

Indeed the IMF study finds that excessive sovereign debt reduces growth only when household and corporate sectors are heavily indebted too.
事实上，国际货币基金组织的研究发现，只有当家庭和企业部门都负债累累的时候，过多的主权债务才能减少增加。

The malign effect of high private debt becomes apparent in the busts that follow credit-driven booms.
高额私人债务的恶性影响逐渐变得明显，随之而来的是信贷驱动的蓬勃发展。

Households that have borrowed too much in relation to their income trim their spending, the main component of GDP.
许多家庭为了平衡他们的收入和支出已经借了太多的债务，这些也是国内生产总值的主要成分。

Overleveraged firms avoid investing and concentrate on shrinking their balance-sheets by paying off loans.
过度杠杆化的公司为了避免投资，正在集中精力收缩其资产负债表，还清贷款。

As bad debts erode their capital, banks become more reluctant to lend.
由于坏账侵蚀其资本，银行越来越不愿意放贷。

These adverse trends reinforce each other, increasing the overall drag on growth.
这些不利趋势互为因果，在整体上拖累经济增长。

Figuring out the point at which debt becomes excessive is not an exact science.
弄清楚债务变得过大的原因不是一门精确的科学。

The European Commission, which now has the job of monitoring any emerging macroeconomic imbalances, uses a figure of 160% of GDP for private debt—what households and non-financial companies owe in the form of loans and debt securities such as corporate bonds.
欧盟委员会，现在负责监测任何造成宏观经济失衡的因素，得知现在私人债务占国内生产总值的160％—家庭和非金融公司的欠款以贷款及债务证券的形式，如企业债券。

That looks conservative: it happens to be the prevailing level in both America and the euro area as a whole.
这看起来很保守的：它正好体现了美国和欧元区作为一个整体的当前水平。

A more realistic trigger for concern might be 200% of GDP.
现实可能更引起关注，因为它可能是GDP的200％ 。

On this basis, eight countries of the 17 that share a common currency look vulnerable.
在此基础上，17个国家中的8个共享一个共同的货币的理由看起来更加脆弱。

Of the eight, Belgium and Luxembourg are less worrying than they might appear because their corporate debt is swollen by the presence of multinationals and includes a big chunk of inter-company lending.
在八个国家中，比利时和卢森堡没有看起来的那么令人担忧，因为大型跨国公司和公司间借贷的存在使他们的企业债务膨胀。

But that does not apply to the Netherlands, where private debt is over 220% of GDP mainly because households owe so much.
但是，这并不适用于荷兰，私人债务占国内生产总值的220％以上，主要是因为家庭私人借贷。

In tiny Malta it is nearly 220%.
而在微小的马耳他，数字接近220 ％ 。

Private debt is also high in four countries that have had to be bailed out: in Cyprus and Ireland it is over 300% of GDP; in Portugal it is 255%; and in Spain 215%.
在其他四个国家私人债务也很高：在塞浦路斯和爱尔兰国占内生产总值的300％以上，在葡萄牙是255％和在西班牙是215%。

In all but one of the eight countries a majority of the private debt is corporate.
但所有八个国家中的大部分私人债务是企业借贷。

This preponderance of company borrowing is most extreme in Luxembourg, but also notable in Ireland whose debt is also affected by the presence of multinational firms; even so, Ireland's household debt alone is over 100% of GDP.
这种公司借贷的优势最明显的是卢森堡，不过爱尔兰的债务也明显受到跨国公司存在的影响，即便如此，在爱尔兰，家庭债务就超过GDP的100％ 。

The Netherlands is the only country where the majority of debt is personal: its household debt is 128% of GDP.
荷兰是唯一一个大部分债务是个人的国家，其家庭债务占国内生产总值的128 ％。

Although Italy has the second-highest sovereign debt in the euro area, it does not feature among the countries with excessive private debt.
虽然意大利在欧元区主权债务数量上居于第二，但它的私人债务并不过多。

Its firms owe somewhat less than the euro-zone average and Italian household debt is especially low.
其公司的借贷稍低于欧元区平均水平，而且家庭债务尤其低。

But monitoring the ratio of debt to GDP is not the only measure of vulnerability.
但监测的债务占国内生产总值的比例，不是衡量标准的唯一漏洞。

For non-financial companies, an important indicator of fragility is a high ratio of debt to equity; and on this measure Italian firms, especially the small and medium-sized ones, are particularly stressed.
对于非金融类公司，脆弱性的一个重要指标是债务与权益比率高，意大利企业，尤其是小型和中型的，对这一点措施特别强调。

Other balance-sheet indicators also suggest that Italian business is in a bad way.
其他资产负债表指标也表明，意大利的商业形式是在糟糕的。

For example, 30% of corporate debt is owed by firms whose pre-tax earnings are less than the interest payments they have to make.
例如，30％的企业债务是因为公司的税前盈利低于要支付的利息。

That share of frail companies is even higher in Spain and Portugal.
在西班牙和葡萄牙的一些公司中份额甚至更高。

But Italy's plight is in stark contrast to the situation in France and Germany, where little more than 10% of corporate debt is owed by such weak performers.
但是，法国和德国的处境与意大利的困境完全相反，他们几乎没有高于10 ％的企业债务拖欠的情况。

Italian firms have been hurt by the erosion of their competitiveness within the euro zone.
意大利公司在欧元区内已经因竞争力受到侵蚀而受伤。

Little progress has been made to lighten the private-debt burden since the crisis began.
从危机产生开始，为减轻私人债务负担所做的努力已经小有进展。

Though it eased in Spain from 227% of GDP in 2009 to 215% in 2012, it rose over the same period in Cyprus, Ireland and Portugal.
虽然将西班牙从2009年占国内生产总值的227％减少至2012年的215 ％ ，但在塞浦路斯，爱尔兰和葡萄牙较上年同期仍然上升。

In Britain, by contrast, private debt fell from 207% of GDP in 2009 to 190% in 2012 thanks to improvements by both households and firms.
相比之下，在英国，私人债务从2009年占国内生产总值的207 ％下降至2012年的190％，无论是家庭还是企业都有所提高。

Getting debt down has proved intractable because the economic climate has been so unforgiving.
债务下降已经被证明是棘手的，因为经济气候一直这么无情。

Debt burdens automatically become lighter as money incomes rise.
债务负担，随着收入上升而减轻。

But that has not been the case in economies hit by a double-dip recession and hurt by prices that are close to deflationary levels.
但是这并没有因二次衰退的打击和价格的伤害而接近通缩的水平。

There is an inherent contradiction between the need for debtor countries in the euro zone to regain competitiveness through lower prices and at the same time to ease excessive debt with a dose of inflation.
在欧元区的负债国家，有一种通过低价重获竞争力和同时舒缓膨胀减少过度借贷的内在的矛盾。

Even in a better economic climate, though, southern Europe would be bad at writing down debt.
不过，即使在一个更好的经济气候下，欧洲南部在债务上也不能做得更好。

Corporate insolvencies have increased sharply but from low levels.
低层次的企业破产大幅增加。

Social attitudes frown on debtors, who are usually pursued through the courts in a long and costly process.
债务人得不到社会的认可，通常是诉诸法院的一个漫长而昂贵的过程。

Insolvency laws have recently been reformed in several countries.
最近几个国家已经重新修订了破产法。

The Portuguese government, for example, has made it easier for debt to be restructured outside the courts.
例如，葡萄牙政府采取措施使法院以外的债务重组更为容易。

But the reforms often fail to work.
但改革期间往往不能正常工作。

The Spanish law is intended to promote restructuring of viable firms but in practice most insolvencies end in liquidation after lengthy court proceedings.
西班牙的法律是为了促进可行的企业重组，但实际上，大多数企业在冗长的法庭诉讼程序结束后依然清算破产。

The cultural stigma of a bankruptcy remains: potential entrepreneurs in countries like Italy and Spain worry more about failure than they do in Britain and America.
破产的耻辱在文化上的仍然存在：有潜力的企业家在像意大利和西班牙这样的国家比在英国和美国更担心失败。

Dutch discouraged
绝望荷兰

High household debt helps explain why the Netherlands, along with Italy and Spain, remained in recession in the second quarter of 2013 even as the euro area in general embarked on recovery.
高家庭债务有助于解释为什么既意大利和西班牙之后，同样位于欧元区的荷兰在整体复苏之后在2013年的第二季度依然处于衰退状态。

Dutch GDP this year will be 2% lower than in 2011 and more than 3% below its previous peak, in 2008.
荷兰国内生产总值今年将比2011年低2％，比2008年的高峰下降了3%以上。

Though this loss of output is dwarfed by that suffered in southern Europe, it illustrates the malign effect of high debt when house prices fall—recent declines have been close to those in Spain.
虽然这与欧洲南部遭受的产出损失相比是相形见绌，但它说明房价下跌给高额负债造成了恶性影响，近期的跌势已经接近那些在西班牙的高额债务。

That has pushed a quarter of Dutch homeowners into “negative equity”: their houses are worth less than their mortgages.
这将使四分之一的荷兰房主成“负资产”持有者，因为他们的房屋价值低于他们的抵押贷款。

Explore our interactive guide to Europe's troubled economies
探索欧洲的经济困难是我们的交互式指南

Elsewhere in the euro area high corporate debt has been doing most damage.
在欧元区其他地方的高企业借贷已经造成了严重的损失。

Firms that have overborrowed are reluctant to embark on new ventures, and banks are in any case reluctant to lend because their balance-sheets are peppered with bad debts.
借贷过多的企业都不愿做出新的尝试，而银行无论如何不愿放贷因为他们的资产负债表已经做好了穿插坏账的准备。

This unhappy state of affairs prevails throughout southern Europe though its precise causes vary.
这种糟糕的财务状况，在整个南部欧洲盛行，虽然其确切的原因各不相同。

In Spain the bad debts have arisen mainly from the property bubble and have been tackled over the past year by recognising the losses and transferring the written-down loans to Sareb, an asset-management company. In Portugal they stem from the attrition of more than a decade of stagnation.
在西班牙发生的坏账主要来自房地产泡沫的出现，并已在过去的一年解决已识别的损失并转移贷款到资产管理公司Sareb。

The ECB's banking probe will cause some of this debt to be written down as banks are forced to recognise some of their bad loans.
欧洲央行的银行探头会造成一些债务被记录成银行被迫承认的一些不良贷款。

But the clean-up could be limited because of the fear among the European countries with solid finances that bad banking debts will be dumped into a common rescue fund.
但是，清理是有限的，因为糟糕银行的债务可能被丢到具有坚实的财政基础的欧洲国家间的一个共同救助基金。

If the quality of these assets is not properly addressed this time, it will cast a long shadow over the euro zone's chances of making a sustained economic recovery.
如果这时不能妥善处理这些资产的质量，它给欧元区经济持续复苏的机会带来巨大的阴影。