VOA常速英语:Political Polling Once Again Under Microscope

Frank Luntz is a noted republican pollster,
弗兰克·伦茨是一位著名的共和党民意调查专家，
before election day he told Fox news,
在选举日之前，他告诉福克斯新闻，
a polling error like 2016 would endanger his business.
像2016年这样的投票错误会危及他的生意。
If Donald Trump is right and these pollsters are wrong about this race,
如果唐纳德·特朗普是对的，而这些民意调查人员对这场比赛的看法是错误的，
and people like me are going to have to find a new profession.
像我这样的人将不得不找到一个新的职业。
Although substantial,
虽然很重要，
Joe Bidens victory was not a landslide.
乔·拜登的胜利并不是压倒性的胜利。
Democrats registered Meager senate gains and lost house seats.
民主党参议员的得票率微乎其微，众议院席位也随之减少。
Lunt said the election results were devastating for the polling industry.
伦特说，选举结果对投票行业是毁灭性的。
There certainly was striking polling error.
当然有明显的投票错误。
Joseph campbell is a communications professor at American university and author of a
约瑟夫·坎贝尔(JosephCampbell)是美国大学的传播学教授，着有“
book about famous polling errors.
关于投票错误的书。
The polls indicated to us the American public at large that there was going to be a blue wave election,
民意调查向我们表明，美国公众将迎来一场蓝波选举，
that Joe Biden would sweep easily comfortably into the white house,
乔·拜登很容易就能轻松地进入白宫，
and bring along with him a senate majority of some size as well as an enhanced house of resentatives majority,
伴随着参议院的多数席位，以及一个充满怨恨情绪的议会，
and none of that really happened.
但这一切都没有发生。
Bill Schneider is a political analyst and professor of policy and government at George Mason university.
比尔·施奈德是乔治梅森大学的政治分析师和政府政策教授
What the polling did was it stirred a lot of Trump voters who were very enthusiastic,
民调所做的是它激起了许多非常热情的特朗普选民，
but dont necessarily are not. Theyre not really habitual voters.
但也不一定不是，他们并不是真正的习惯性选民。
Theyre working-class white guys who dont vote in huge numbers.
他们是工人阶级的白人，没有大量投票。
Its it got them angry and it moved them to go out and vote to save the president and to save the Republican party.
这让他们很生气，也让他们走出去投票去拯救总统和共和党。
Every poll has a margin of error,
每次投票都有误差，
figuring out who is going to vote is key to keeping that margin small.
弄清楚谁将投票是保持这一差距的关键。
We want as a pollster to weed out to remove from your sample.
我们希望把作为民意测验的人从样本中去掉。
Those voters who say yeah Im going to vote but actually are not going to vote.
那些说我会投票但实际上不会投票的选民。
and there are different ways in which pollsters do this,
民意调查人员有不同的方式来确认这件事，
and theyre different screening devices,
有不同的屏蔽装置，
as theyre called by which to weed out those non-likely voters.
因为他们被要求筛选出那些不可能投票的人。
There is a reason that polling organizations say their surveys are just a snapshot in time.
有一个原因，民意调查机构说，他们的调查只是一段时间截至。
Theyre very useful for understanding whats happening politically.
它们对于理解政治上正在发生的事情非常有用。
Theyre very poor at predicting whats going to happen next,
他们很难预测接下来会发生什么，
because people change people respond they respond to the polls.
因为人们会改变人们的反应，所以他们会对民意调查做出反应。
While there may be a reckoning ahead for the industry,
虽然这一行业可能还会面临挑战，
polls are here to stay so entrenched
民意调查将如此根深蒂固
that polling has already started for 2024.
2024年的投票已经开始。
Steve Reddish VOA news Washington
史蒂夫雷迪什美国之音华盛顿新闻