经济学人下载:顶级商业房产,如质数般稀少

Refinancing that amount of debt will be very tricky. Banks are still under pressure to bring down the size of their balance-sheets. Debt markets are thawing, but slowly. Around $15 billion of CMBS were issued in America last year, and according to Tom Fink of Trepp, a research firm, that number is likely to rise to $30 billion this year and $50 billion in 2012. He reckons that the market will have to issue $100 billion a year by the time the CMBS wave breaks in 2014-15. Other markets will face similar pressures: Ian Marcus, chairman of Credit Suisse’s European property arm, says that around 40 billion of bank debt and CMBS will need to be refinanced in Britain each year for the next four years, but that lending capacity from banks and other sources totals only 15 billion-20 billion annually, and that figure might well drop further.

为那么多的债再融资会非常困难。为了减小资产负债表的规模，银行仍然满负压力。债券市场正在回暖，但是速度很慢。美国去年发行了约150亿美元的CMBS，而且根据就职于研究公司Trepp的汤姆·芬克(Tom Fink)的预测，这个数字今年可能会涨到300亿美元，2012年将达到500亿美元。他认为，到CMBS潮中止的2014~2015年，这个市场必须要一年发行1000亿美元的证券。其它市场也将面临类似的压力：瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)欧洲房地产分部的主席伊恩·马库斯说，未来四年，英国每年都约有400亿的银行债券和CMBS需要再融资，但是银行和其它渠道的贷款能力每年总共只有150~200亿，而且这个数字可能还会继续下降。

The better borrowers and properties clearly have the best chance of surviving the refinancing tsunami. Rising prices for prime assets help close the financing gap between loan and equity values. According to Foresight Analytics, a research firm, at current values half of the debt coming due this year in America is in negative equity. A 10% increase in prices would reduce the proportion of under-water debt to under 30%. Providers of debt and equity naturally cluster at the top end of the market.

信用度更好的借贷者和更优质的地产显然最有机会挺过这场再融资海啸。顶级资产上涨的价格帮助拉近了贷款和资产价值之间的融资缺口。根据研究公司Foresight Analytics，以现值计算，美国今年到期的债券中，半数处于负资产状态。10%的价格增长就会将未偿付债券的比例降到30%以下。债券和资金的提供者自然会在市场的顶端聚集。

Getting out from under water
走出按揭

For the long tail of inferior buildings, a slow, stumbling slog towards normality is the most likely outcome. The biggest fear in the market is that banks will foreclose on borrowers and start a fire-sale. But dumping assets would risk setting off another downward spiral in prices, eating into the amount of capital in the system. “In principle, assets should be sold, but in practice lenders may not benefit, and there may be very nasty ripple effects that no one wants to see happen,” says Nick Scarles, the chief financial officer of Grosvenor, a British property company.

对于后面一长串的次等房产，冲破阻碍、一步步艰难地回归常态是最有可能结果。市场最大的恐惧是银行会取消借款者的赎回权，并进行减价出售。但是倾销资产可能会引起又一轮价格的急速下跌，并侵蚀该系统的资本额。“原则上，资产应当变卖；但是这实际上对银行没有益处，而且可能会发生人们都不想看到的、讨厌的涟漪效应，” 英国房地产公司Grosvenor的首席财务官尼克·思卡尔斯(Nick Scarles)说。

The picture is further complicated by interest-rate swaps that many borrowers took out to protect them against rate rises. These swaps often extend well beyond the life of the loan. Until rates rise, the cost to the banks of unwinding them is high enough to act as a drag on disposals.

许多借贷者为保护自己免受利率上涨影响而采取了利率互换的方法，这会使情况进一步变得复杂。这些互换通常超过了贷款期限。在利率上涨之前，银行作为拖延工具为其松绑所付出的成本非常高。

Sitting on assets for ever is not an option either. The interest-rate cycle could turn, which would put more pressure on borrowers and tenants and quickly eat away at banks’ profits. And as leases get closer to their expiry dates, their value erodes. Most importantly, buildings need love if they are not to deteriorate. Under-water owners of property in poor locations have little incentive to splash out on maintenance. “There is a horse race between the economic recovery doing its job and lower-quality properties heading for obsolescence,” says one regulator. With austerity packages kicking in across much of the rich world, it is a race many buildings will lose.

永远坐拥财产也不是一个选择。利率周期可能会扭转，这会给借贷者和承租者带来更多压力，并且会很快侵蚀掉银行的利润。而且随着租赁期限的逼近，租赁的价值将减少。最重要的是，建筑需要爱护才不会老化。那些房产所处地理位置较差，且贷款贬值的业主没有动力花大钱进行楼的养护。“有一场比赛正在进行，一方是履行职责的经济复苏，另一方是行将没落的低质房产。” 一家监管机构说。随着一揽子紧缩方案在多数发达国家如火如荼地开展，许多大楼将在这场比赛中败北。