经济学人下载:顶级商业房产,如质数般稀少

The long tail
长尾

Froth at the very top of the market and signs of life on the next rung down are all very well. The real problem in commercial property in much of the rich world is the vast number of properties in less auspicious locations. It is hard to find out exactly how these properties are faring now, but one thing is clear: they were the assets whose values moved furthest from fundamentals during the boom. They tended to be loaded up with more bank debt, in part because better properties went for financing from capital-markets investors. And they have not benefited from the recovery in prices.

市场最顶部的泡沫和接近顶部的复苏迹象，状况都非常好。发达国家商业地产真正的问题是非黄金地带数量巨大的房产。很难确切弄清这些房产现在的境况如何，但是有一点很清楚：在繁荣时期，它们是自身价值脱离基本面最远的资产。而且它们往往背负更多银行债务，其中部分原因是更好的房产都去向资本市场的投资者寻求融资。而且它们没有从价格复苏中得到实惠。

Investors had assumed that this would mean a flood of properties coming onto the market as owners tried to offload their buildings and borrowers breached their covenants. Yet there has been very little activity at the lower end of the market. There is still a big gap between the prices that owners want and that bargain-hunters are prepared to pay, which is holding up deals. Many banks have been willing to roll loans over and ignore breaches of loan-to-value covenants caused by falling values (a strategy known as “extend and pretend”) rather than force a sale. Low interest rates have helped borrowers to keep up with loan payments. That leaves large parts of the market in limbo, producing enough cash from tenants for owners to stay alive and lenders to forbear but with little prospect of an immediate recovery in values.

投资者原本认为，随着房屋所有者试图甩掉手中的房产以及借款者的违约，这将意味着会有大量房产涌入市场。但是在低端市场，并没有多少有交易活动发生。房主想要的价格和抄底商准备支付的数额仍存在巨大的落差，这阻碍了双方的交易。许多银行很乐意贷款展期，并且忽略价值下跌所导致的贷款价值契约的违约（该策略被称作“延期并假装不知”），而不是强行变卖。 低利率帮助借贷者跟上了贷款偿还的步伐。这让很大一部分市场处于不确定状态，并且产生足够的现金从承租者流向业主，使业主可以活下去，使银行可以忍受，但是不大可能在价值上立即恢复。

How long can this last? There is still a huge amount of debt attached to commercial property, and most of it is coming due in the next few years. A 2010 report by the Congressional Oversight Panel showed that around $1.4 trillion of loans backed by commercial property will mature in America alone by the end of 2014 (see chart 6). Another $1 trillion is due to mature by 2018, much of this second wave in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS).

这能持续多长时间？商业地产依然背负着巨额债务，而且其中大多数都将在未来几年到期。国会监督委员会(Congressional Oversight Panel)一份2010年的报告显示，仅仅美国一国，就有约14亿美元由商业地产担保的贷款将在2014年底到期（请看图表6）。另有10亿美元将在2018年到期，其中多数都是商业抵押担保证券(CMBS)。