经济学人下载:顶级商业房产,如质数般稀少

A special report on property
关于房地产的特别报道

Prime numbers
顶级商业房产，如质数般稀少

Commercial property has bounced back, but only in the best locations
商业地产已经复苏，但是只在黄金地带

Shard ascending
“碎片”在升高

IN SOME corners of the commercial-property market a slight whiff of self-congratulation is in the air. Doom-laden warnings issued in 2008 and early 2009 that commercial real estate would be the “next shoe to drop” have not come to pass. Opportunistic investors hoping to cash in on the sale of distressed assets have been largely disappointed. Governments have intervened less than they have in housing (there are fewer votes in office buildings and shopping centres). “Commercial real estate was not at the heart of the crisis,” says a big fund manager in Germany.

在商业地产市场的某些角落里，空气中漂浮着一丝自得的气息。商业地产将会是“下一只掉落的鞋子”——这条2008年和2009年初发出的警告并没有最终成为现实。那些希望靠出售问题资产赚钱的机会型投资者多半沮丧而归。政府对商业地产的干预比对住宅所做的干预要少（写字楼和购物中心的选票少）。“商业地产不是这次危机的中心，” 德国一个大型基金的经理人这样说。

Investors’ interest in the asset class is growing, thanks in large part to the extreme macroeconomic environment. Near-zero interest rates make the yields on offer from property look attractive. The cashflow from tenants is more stable than that from equities, where values zigzag day by day and dividends can suddenly be suspended by the management. And unlike many types of bonds, property is seen as a useful hedge against inflation because rental agreements can be renegotiated with tenants to reflect rising prices. Bulls note that Norway’s $543 billion state pension fund, one of the world’s largest sovereign-wealth funds, is starting to allocate money to property. It made its first real-estate investment in January, spending ￡452m ($723m) on properties in London’s Regent Street.

投资者对资产类别的兴趣正在增加，很大一部分原因是极端的宏观经济环境。近于零的利率使得房产提供的收益看起来很具吸引力。来自承租者的现金流比来自股票的更稳定，后者的价值日复一日地曲折前行，而且红利可能突然就被管理方中止。而且和许多类型的债券不同，房地产被看作是对冲通胀的利器，因为可以与承租者重新协商租赁协议，以此来反映上涨的物价。看涨者们注意到，挪威5430亿美元的政府养老金（世界上最大的主权财富基金之一）正在开始向房地产分配资金。该基金在一月份进行了第一笔房地产投资，把4.52亿英镑（7.23亿美元）投在伦敦丽晶街(Regent Street)上的房产。