经济学人下载:顶级商业房产,如质数般稀少

In the boom the distinction between top-quality assets and lower-quality ones (also known as “secondary” and “tertiary”) blurred. Money chased property of all sorts, closing the yield gap between the best and the rest. Not any more. Investors are now generally much more conservative, in part because they have more of their own equity at stake. That points them towards big cities where it is easier to get into and out of investments and where demand from high-quality tenants is concentrated. Money that had been raised to buy distressed assets was also switched into safer ones when it became clear that bargain properties were not coming to market in great numbers (of which more below).

在繁荣时期，顶级资产和质量较差资产（也被称作“二级”和“三级”资产）之间的界限很模糊。各种级别的房产都是资金追逐的对象，这拉近了优质房产和其它房产之间的收益差。但是这种现象已不复存在了。现在的投资者一般更为保守，部分原因是他们更多地拿自己的钱作赌注。这把他们的触角引向了大城市；投资大城市，资金更容易退出，而且高级租户的需求较为集中。当廉价房产明显不会大量进入市场的时候（下面会有更多内容关于此），为购买问题资产而筹来的钱也在向更安全的资产转移。

In a faint echo of the boom itself, this weight of money chasing “safe” assets carries risk. Some think that prices for prime properties have already bounced back too far. “The next bubble may be under way in some markets,” says Matthias Danne of Deka, the largest provider of open-ended property funds in Germany. Correlations also tend to go up when property companies chase the same sort of tenants and locations: a portfolio of city-centre office buildings full of blue-chip banks looked stable until the crisis. And the desire for secure, long-term leases can easily backfire if interest rates rise, which will make yields look much less appealing. “A real snapback in interest rates is the big real-estate risk,” says Mr Gray at Blackstone.

和繁荣时期有点类似，这些追逐“安全”资产的资金也带着风险。有些人认为顶级房产的价格反弹得太厉害。“下一个泡沫可能正在某些市场酝酿着，” Deka（德国最大的开放式基金提供商）的马提亚·丹纳(Matthias Danne)说。当房地产公司追逐同样类型的租户和地点时，关联性也在增加：城市中心一批满是蓝筹银行的写字楼看起来很稳定，直到危机的发生。而且如果利率升高的话（这使得租赁收益的吸引力变得大打折扣），对于安全、长期租约的渴望会很容易消退。“利率真正的好转对房地产来说是个很大的风险，” 黑石公司(Blackstone)的格雷先生说。

Blackstone’s strategy is to invest opportunistically: it looks for empty and run-down buildings that it can improve and sell. For less ambitious investors, the obvious way to find better-value properties will be to take on risk gradually. That might mean accepting shorter lease lengths, with a view to refurbishing a building on expiry and then increasing rents. It might mean staying in the biggest cities but plumping for lower-quality assets, or moving into the best locations in secondary cities. Or it might mean going for the very best assets in less attractive countries.

黑石公司是机会主义式的投资策略：寻找可以修缮并卖出的破旧空置房。对于魄力稍逊的投资者，找到价值更高房产显而易见的办法是逐步承担风险。这可能意味着接受更短的租期，并打算在期满之后对楼进行重新翻修，然后提高租金。还可能意味着在大城市里选择质量较差的资产，或者进入二级城市的黄金地带。或者可能意味着在不那么有吸引力的国家寻求最优良资产。

Some fund managers make the case for prime properties in Spain. In December Deka bought a shopping centre in Bilbao for 116m ($153m). Mr Danne reckons that its location and age (less than three years), and rents that were set in 2008, when tenants had the upper hand, provide plenty of scope for future growth.

一些基金经理有充足的理由投资西班牙的顶级(prime)房产 。去年十二月，Deka在毕尔巴鄂花1.16亿欧元（1.53亿美元）买下了一个购物中心。丹纳认为，该购物中心的地理位置和建成时间（刚建成不到3年）以及2008年定下的租金（当时是租方市场），为未来的增长提供了足够的空间。

Even the most troubled markets have pockets of promise. International retailers see a chance to get their hands on really good locations at really low prices: Walt Disney announced plans in October to open its first store in Dublin during the first half of this year, for example. And high vacancy rates are not the same as an excess of high-quality office space. Even in Dubai, where the sky is still alarmingly full of cranes and half-finished towers, one Western bank is contemplating building a new office for itself because existing buildings are not up to scratch.

甚至最不景气的市场都有零星的希望。国际零售商看到了以极低价格得到好地点的机会：例如，迪斯尼公司在今年上半年宣布，十月份计划开设在都柏林的第一家店。而且高空置率和高档写字楼的过量并不是一回事。即使是在迪拜（那里的天空中依然满是骇人的塔吊和未完工的大楼），一家西方银行仍然在考虑新建一栋自用的写字楼，因为现有的楼达不到标准。