经济学人下载:顶级商业房产,如质数般稀少

Indeed, if there is going to be an imbalance in commercial property now, it is more likely to involve a scarcity of supply. As prospects for economic growth gradually improve, demand from large companies, which are sitting on lots of money and are able to take a long-term view of the business cycle, is picking up. Yet there is very little development in the pipeline, at least in the rich world. Estimates from CBRE show that 65% of the new office space due to come on stream in big cities between 2010 and 2012 is in Asia and just 8% in North America. As a result, says Brett White, the firm’s boss, vacancy rates will go down and rents, which have already stabilised in many places, will go up: “Power is very quickly shifting from the tenant to the landlord.”

实际上，如果商业地产出现失衡的话，更有可能是供给不足。随着经济前景的逐渐变好，那些资金雄厚并且对商业周期能够长远考虑的大公司，其需求正在增加。但是新开发的商业楼盘却是少之又少，至少发达国家是这种情况。据世邦魏理仕公司(CBRE)的估计，2010~2012年将开工的新建商业楼盘中，亚洲占到65%，而北美只占8%。“结果就是，空置率将下降，出租率将上升（许多地方的出租率已经非常稳定了），” 该公司的总裁布雷特·怀特说，“权力将很快从承租方转到出租方。”

Some are well placed to benefit from a prospective squeeze on space. A cluster of new buildings is going up in London, with nicknames like the Shard, the Walkie-Talkie and the Cheesegrater. Francis Salway, the boss of Land Securities, a big developer, says his firm made a conscious decision at the start of 2010 not to be too risk-averse. It has since committed itself to development projects costing over ￡1 billion. Mr Salway reckons that there could be a shortage of new office space in London by the end of this year; completion of his next project in the city is not due until 2012.

一些开发商已经准备好从预期的拥挤空间中受益。伦敦的一批新楼盘正在拔地而起，并有了“碎片(Shard)”、“步话机(Walkie-Talkie)”和“干酪擦(Cheesegrater)”这样的绰号。大型开发商“土地证券”(Land Securities)的老板弗朗西斯·萨尔维(Francis Salway)说，他的公司在2010年初做出了一个清醒的决定——公司将不会过分规避风险。该公司自那时起用在开发项目上的资金超过了10亿英镑。萨尔维认为，到今年年底，伦敦的新建写字楼可能会呈现短缺状况；他在伦敦城下一个项目的完工要等到2012年。

Quality streets
顶级街道

Outside London, the chances of an immediate surge in new building are slight. Debt financing for development projects, which lenders inevitably class as risky, is very tight. Land Securities has been able to start building in part because it raised lots of equity during 2009 and in part by joining with others. The Walkie-Talkie building, work on which started in January and is due to be completed in 2014, is a joint venture with Canary Wharf Group. And London is arguably a special case: the city’s leases tend to be unusually long, often 25 years, which means that tenants in old offices whose leases are due to expire in the next few years may want to up sticks for a modern building.

在伦敦之外，新楼盘迅速矗立的机会渺茫。针对房地产开发项目的债务融资非常紧张；银行不可避免地会把这样的项目定级为“危险”。“土地证券”之所以能够开始新楼盘的建设，部分原因是该公司在2009年募集了许多资金，还有部分原因是这些项目是与其它公司联合开发的。一月开工、定于2014年完工的“步话机”大厦就是与金丝雀码头集团(Canary Wharf Group)的合作项目。而且伦敦可以说是一个特别的例子：该市房屋的租期往往格外长，经常是25年的期限，这意味着旧写字楼中的租户，如果其租约几年内就到期的话，可能会想要搬到一个更现代的大楼中。

In any case, all this talk of rising values and space constraints can be misleading. The recovery in commercial property is confined to the best, or “prime”, assets. Prime is an overused word in the industry, but in essence it means the best buildings in the best locations, with good tenants and long leases. For offices, that means buildings right in the centre of big, international cities. For other types of commercial property it might mean something different: a great logistics centre with a long lease, for instance, might be near a motorway and nothing much else.

不管怎样，所有这些升值以及空间紧张的说法可能颇具误导性。商业地产的复苏只局限于最好的、或者说“顶级(prime)”资产。“顶级”是这个产业中被过度使用的一个词，但是这个词的本意是指位于黄金地带的最优质房产，而且有很好的租户和长期的租约。对于写字楼来说，“顶级”意味着位于国际化大城市中心地带的房产。对于其它类型的商业地产来说，这个词的意思可能有些不一样: 一个拥有长期租约的大型物流中心，比方说，可能位于高速公路附近，此外就没有多少其它的要求了。