经济学人下载:违约杯具已避,跛脚政治风险犹存

The Democrats found the deal unbalanced because it contains no tax increases. But nor does it guarantee changes to entitlement programmes, which do not require annual authorisation and are the real source of long-term spending pressure. As a result, the deal’s $2.1 trillion-2.4 trillion in deficit savings will not only fail to halt the climb in the debt, but may not preserve America’s AAA credit rating either. Wall Street is jittery; though the stockmarket rallied when the deal was announced, by the end of August 2nd the S&P 500 had tumbled to a seven-month low.

民主党人发现这个协议并不平衡，原因在于它没将增税囊括在内。但是需要注意的是，协议同样也没保证说要对福利项目进行改革，而这些福利项目因为不需要年年的审核授权，恰恰是长期开支压力的真正来源。因此，2.1万亿至2.4万亿美元的减赤协议，并不能阻止不断攀升的债务，而且也不能保证美国顶级的3A主权信用评级。华尔街无疑是最紧张的，虽然当该协议宣布时，股市应声拉升，但到8月2日收盘时，标普500指数还是创下了7个月来的新低。

In theory, the joint congressional committee that must find the next tranche of cuts could embrace both entitlement reform and an increase in taxes. But Mr Boehner and Mitch McConnell, the Republican minority leader in the Senate, have made it clear that they do not want the committee to pursue tax increases. Since they will appoint the six Republican members, and since at least one Republican vote will be needed to put the committee’s recommendations to Congress as a whole, they can presumably get their way. Democrats, in turn, have made it clear that they will not allow cuts to entitlements unless the Republicans give ground on taxes.

理论上来说，联合国会委员会（即前面提到的那个12人组成的委员会）必须在下一轮削减计划中包括福利改革和增税内容。但博纳和共和党参议院少数派领导人米奇．麦克康奈尔就明确指出，他们并不希望该委员会寻求增税方案。考虑到这两位拥有指派六名委员会小组成员的权利，并且该委员会提交给国会的议案必须征得至少一名共和党人的支持，这哥俩的企图貌似可以达成。民主党人，作为回应，也明确甩出话来，除非共和党在税收上做出让步，否则休想动福利项目一根汗毛。

The debt deal’s triggers are meant to be fearsome enough to prevent that kind of deadlock. But for many Republicans, voting for a tax increase would be a bigger sin than allowing vicious cuts in the defence budget. Many Democrats, in turn, think they have been too quick to compromise in recent budget battles and are determined to call the Republicans’ bluff for once. Some—Mr Obama among them—welcome the idea of campaigning for next year’s elections with huge and doubtless unpopular budget cuts looming, while the rich are spared any rise in taxes.

债务协议引发的后果是相当可怕的，足以防止僵局的出现。但是对于共和党人来说，支持增税可比须削减国防预算带来的罪感严重得多。民主党人则认为自己在近期的的预算“战争”太早妥协了，又一次被共和党人的虚张声势给忽悠了。他们中的一些人，包括奥巴马，都认为明年选举时，可以推动一个庞大而又肯定不受欢迎的预算案来破除幻想，同时富人们也可免于增税。

Furthermore, there is always the chance that Congress, when faced with big cuts to cherished programmes, will simply reverse itself and disconnect the triggers. Past schemes designed to instil fiscal discipline have frequently come unstuck sooner or later. The triggers are meant to be pulled on December 23rd, but if no agreement has been reached, the cuts do not take effect for over a year after that, leaving Congress plenty of time to reconsider.

此外，当国会不愿割舍的项目面临大的削减时，它依然有机会改变方案本身，或者切断自己与协议后果的干系。此前就有多个计划力图灌输恪守财政律令的想法，奈何每次都屡屡被违反。协议所引发的后果将在12月23日正式见效，但是如果协议没有达成，削减方案将被搁置一年，这就会给国会留下大把的时间来重新考虑这个问题。